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To: CAtholic Family Association
In reply to: "Americans are at a birth rate below replacement rate":

I'm not sure where you got your numbers, but they are not correct. The US is the only industrialized nation with a birth rate that is above the replacement rate of 2.1 children per couple (although not by much). We were well below 2.0 for awhile in the 70's, but it has increased over the past two decades.

What is surprising is that much of the third world is rapidly approaching their replacment rate, and the trends indicate that world population may peak fairly soon and decline at an accelerating rate with unpredictable consequences (what happens land values when nobody is around to buy it?).

Regarding your comment about Mexicans: they are drawn to our jobs. I don't think they know or care what the birth rate is in the US and we should be happy they are here (as long as they're here legally and hold a job). The majority are hard workers and only looking for a better life, just like our ancestors, right? By the way, did you know that the fertility rate in Mexico is already at or below their replacment rate and falling, not rising? Mexico's population is still climbing fairly rapidly because of 'inertia' as women remain in their child bearing years for several decades, but this is a temporary situation unless their ferility rate increases soon. Ditto for much of the third world.

All of this may be good for the US as these immigrants will pay into the Social Security system, pension funds, etc., to support YOUR retirement, no?? Read Ben Wattenberg when you get a chance.

26 posted on 01/28/2004 8:22:58 PM PST by IndyMac
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To: IndyMac
By the way, did you know that the fertility rate in Mexico is already at or below their replacment rate and falling, not rising?

Sending a million over to the USA a year might behind that --- plus many of their street children have very short lives and gang violence and drug overdose is killing their teens and young adults.

27 posted on 01/28/2004 8:41:34 PM PST by FITZ
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To: IndyMac
I'm not sure where you got your numbers, but they are not correct. The US is the only industrialized nation with a birth rate that is above the replacement rate of 2.1 children per couple (although not by much).

I got my numbers from the 2001 article I posted in post #11. My reading on this subject has consistently shown that, if it weren't for current immigration levels, both legal and illegal, we would have a declining population base. In other words, Americans themselves are below replacement rates, but Americans PLUS immigrants puts us at slightly above replacement rates:

In Europe as a whole, the total fertility rate is about 1.4. ...In the USA it is still fractionally above replacement, helped by the relatively high fertility of Mexican-Americans and a large immigration programme.

*****

Regarding your comment about Mexicans: they are drawn to our jobs. I don't think they know or care what the birth rate is in the US and we should be happy they are here (as long as they're here legally and hold a job).

Its the low birth rate that creates the labor vaccuum, making the jobs they are filling here available.

I think we're on the same page here, IndyMac.

31 posted on 01/28/2004 9:25:49 PM PST by Polycarp IV (PRO-LIFE orthodox Catholic--without exception, without compromise, without apology. Any questions?)
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