U.S. plans Al Qaeda offensive (in Pakistan). (Capture Bin Laden?)

Chicago Tribune ^ | 1/28/04

[mystery-ak]

A Spring Offense...that tells me the push is already on....and you are right, the rats will scurry from their holes.

[hedgie]

tribal areas = NWFPA = (technically) not in Pakistan = fig leaf for Musharraf.

So he can say "There are no US troops in Pakistan." and not be a liar.

It depends on what the meaning of the word "Pakistan" is ....

[Coop]

I would go as far as to argue we are already operating in the tribal area...just a hunch.

It's more than a hunch. By all accounts we've got CIA operatives and presumably special forces working with Pakistani troops, and there are indeed troops in the tribal areas. But I think this move is perhaps showing more of an willingness by the Pakistani government to work openly with American forces.

Honestly, I don't see much operational news in these reports. Over the past two plus years we've undoubtedly had countless op plans in the works regarding such scenarios. What's changed? I doubt much at all from a military perspective, but politically it's probably another story. Just my two cents...

[Coop]

Well, here's an interesting follow-up article:

Pakistan rules out US Al-Qaeda offensive on its territory

Agence France-Presse
Islamabad, January 29

Pakistan on Wednesday ruled out any US military offensive on its territory against Al-Qaeda terrorists, after an American newspaper claimed Washington was planning to deploy its troops to Pakistan.

United States daily Chicago Tribune reported yesterday that the Pentagon had drawn up contingency plans for a military strike against Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network inside Pakistan.

Military spokesman Major General Shaukat Sultan said Pakistan had rejected past requests by the US for hot pursuit over the border from Afghanistan, where some 10,000 US troops have been deployed for over two years to hunt al-Qaeda operatives.

"The US has asked in the past that they should be allowed to operate in Pakistan, and they should also be allowed to chase the Al-Qaeda people coming into Pakistan, and Pakistan has always denied this to the US," he told AFP.

Pakistan "has resisted and will continue to resist" such requests from the US.

Quoting Pentagon sources, the Tribune said the US military planned to deploy thousands of US troops, many of them drawn from US forces already on the ground in Afghanistan, and the deployment of a Navy aircraft carrier to the Arabian Sea possibly this year.

The US forces would work with Pakistani troops.

Shaukat dismissed the report as "total fabrication."
---------

So the question is, was the original article completely bogus, or was it supposed to be kept secret and now Pakistan has no choice but to publicly deny?

[Coop]

Update at Post #104.

[Dog]

Coop you ever been bird hunting?

I think what we have here is a bit of disinformation on our part to get the bad guys to show their hand...

[Coop]

No, I'm a skeet man myself. But I'm quite familiar with flushing prey. I'm not so sure that's what is going on here though. Too long term, IMHO. If I wanted to get someone moving, I'd announce an operation taking place within 48 or 72 hours.

Then again, DoD never calls me. :-)

[Dog]

"The US has asked in the past that they should be allowed to operate in Pakistan, and they should also be allowed to chase the Al-Qaeda people coming into Pakistan, and Pakistan has always denied this to the US," he told AFP.

Pakistan "has resisted and will continue to resist" such requests from the US.

After we lost thousands on 9/11 raise your hand if you believe this bit of spin..

[Prodigal Son]

Is that the entire article? Also, do you have a link for it? (I'm saving these to hard disk so I can use them later.)

[Coop]

I thought I had included the link. My apologies.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_552397,00050002.htm

[Prodigal Son]

Thanks!

[Sacajaweau]

I think you're right. Usama has two choices...to play defense or offense against a superior force. Either play is suicide.

[swarthyguy]

>>know ask yourself why would they telegraph our next move

Major Assumption:

Because we already have some BIG BIGWIGS and need to prepare the ground in Pakistan for the announcement.

Give Mush credit, plausible deniability with his jihadis etc.

[Dog]

Fox had a retired Major on discussing this newspaper article.....and he said there is no way the Pentagon would tip our hand like this on a pending operation..... they wait until after an operation is underway.

He said there is something else going on here behind the scenes. He also commented about the officer in Afghanistan who said we would capture Bin Laden by the years end....this is how we kept saying we were close to catching Saddam.....so we may be close.

[Cap Huff]

This really makes sense. I never took the "spring offensive" plans as serious info about real upcoming plans. The theory that the story was planted to flush OBL or Z out a hidey hole makes more sense, but there may be other reasonable theories.

I do find it in some ways shocking to see generals openly setting "deadlines" for capture. As far as I know, no one is pushing them to announce a timetable. The only thing that I can quickly think is that they know that they are so close that the deadline is virtually certain to be met. Why set a deadline that you don't need to commit to?

[swarthyguy]

Here's a tidbit from paktribune.com

KOHAT, January 29 (Online): Unidentified terrorists fired five rockets targeting Pakistan Air Force (PAF) base here from the nearby ranges but no loss to property or life was reported as they landed in the nearby garden on late Tuesday night.
Police has registered case against unknown assailants and also collected the disseminated parts of the missiles.

End.

Hindustan Times.


Rockets explode near Pak air base; no injuries reported
Associated Press
Islamabad, January 29

At least four rockets landed near an air force base in southwestern Pakistan, an official said on Thursday. No injuries or serious damage were reported.

The "four or five" rockets exploded late on Wednesday near the base in Kohat, a city about 160 kilometres southwest of the capital Islamabad, a military official said on condition of anonymity.

It was unclear who fired the rockets, or if the air base was the intended target.

A spokesman for Pakistan's Air Force denied local newspaper reports that the rockets hit the base. Civilian authorities are investigating the attack, spokesman Air Commodore Sarfaraz Khan said.

ANd this little incident from the BEEB!

Pakistan police die in shooting


The accused is said to have used his AK-47 rifle on fellow officers
Four Pakistani policemen have been killed in a shooting spree by one of their colleagues, officials say.
The attacker, named Fahim Khan, is said to have opened fire on Tuesday night after arriving for duty in Kohat town in the North West Frontier Province.

He was chased and arrested by off-duty policemen and is now awaiting trial.

The incident is being investigated. The motive for the killings remains unclear but officials say the suspect suffered from psychological problems.


100 odd mile SW of Islamabadl the tribal areas, south of Peshawar, exactly smack dab in the middles of the hot zones.

Looks like the game is afoot. Firing on PAF to stop joint ops? A jihadi cop killing his mates.

The pali bomber in Israel today was an excop too.

Google Kohat for above reports.

[Dog]

Kohat sounded familiar....so I Googled it... look at this blast from the past.

US to get THREE Pakistan Air Bases

Check out its location on the map in the article.

[Semper Paratus]

Last June Gen. Franks said that capture of Sadaam was certain in 60 days.

[Cap Huff]

That fact escaped me. Obviously he was off by several months. It is well to remember that oftentimes people who could be expected to know better open their mouths and say things they come to regret. He was retiring so perhaps he thought he could go out a bit on the limb, knowing that if he was wrong few would remember his words, and fewer still would hold him to what he said.

[swarthyguy]

There's another airbase in Dalbandin in Baluchistan as well.

And one in town called Jacobabad north of Karachi.

These names from early 2002/;late2001.

Looks like a whole invisible war taking place right under the noses our intrepid newshounds.

Where's Geraldo Rivers anyway?