Iranian Alert -- January 28, 2004 -- IRAN LIVE THREAD --Americans for Regime Change in Iran

The US media almost entirely ignores news regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran. As Tony Snow of the Fox News Network has put it, “this is probably the most under-reported news story of the year.” But most American’s are unaware that the Islamic Republic of Iran is NOT supported by the masses of Iranians today. Modern Iranians are among the most pro-American in the Middle East.

There is a popular revolt against the Iranian regime brewing in Iran today. Starting June 10th of this year, Iranians have begun taking to the streets to express their desire for a regime change. Most want to replace the regime with a secular democracy. Many even want the US to over throw their government.

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movement in Iran from being reported. Unfortunately, the regime has successfully prohibited western news reporters from covering the demonstrations. The voices of discontent within Iran are sometime murdered, more often imprisoned. Still the people continue to take to the streets to demonstrate against the regime.

In support of this revolt, Iranians in America have been broadcasting news stories by satellite into Iran. This 21st century news link has greatly encouraged these protests. The regime has been attempting to jam the signals, and locate the satellite dishes. Still the people violate the law and listen to these broadcasts. Iranians also use the Internet and the regime attempts to block their access to news against the regime. In spite of this, many Iranians inside of Iran read these posts daily to keep informed of the events in their own country.

This daily thread contains nearly all of the English news reports on Iran. It is thorough. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary. The news stories and commentary will from time to time include material from the regime itself. But if you read the post you will discover for yourself, the real story of what is occurring in Iran and its effects on the war on terror.

I am not of Iranian heritage. I am an American committed to supporting the efforts of those in Iran seeking to replace their government with a secular democracy. I am in contact with leaders of the Iranian community here in the United States and in Iran itself.

If you read the daily posts you will gain a better understanding of the US war on terrorism, the Middle East and why we need to support a change of regime in Iran. Feel free to ask your questions and post news stories you discover in the weeks to come.

If all goes well Iran will be free soon and I am convinced become a major ally in the war on terrorism. The regime will fall. Iran will be free. It is just a matter of time.

Anti-war nations 'took bribes' before war began

Investigation launched into claims that Saddam Hussein used oil to win support around the world

By Anne Penketh
28 January 2004

Claims that dozens of politicians, including some from prominent anti-war countries such as France, had taken bribes to support Saddam Hussein are to be investigated by the Iraqi authorities. The US-backed Iraqi Governing Council decided to check after an independent Baghdad newspaper, al-Mada, published a list which it said was based on oil ministry documents.

The 46 individuals, companies and organisations inside and outside Iraq were given millions of barrels of oil, the documents show. Thousands of papers were looted from the State Oil Marketing Organisation after Baghdad fell to US forces on 9 April.

"I think the list is true," Naseer Chaderji, a Governing Council member, said. "I will demand an investigation. These people must be prosecuted." Rumours had circulated for months that documents implicating senior French individuals were about to surface. Such evidence would undermine the French position before the war when President Jacques Chirac staked out the moral high ground in opposing the invasion.

A senior Bush administration official said Washington was aware of the reports but refused further comment. Another US source said that incriminating oil ministry documents allegedly implicating France concerned the two-year period before the war, when the UN sanctions were in danger of collapse.

French diplomats have dismissed any suggestion that their foreign policy was influenced by payments from Saddam. The French have always insisted their anti-war stance did not mean support for Saddam. But British diplomats suspected France's steadfast opposition to the war was driven by something other than the reasons stated by President Chirac. "Oil runs thicker than blood," is how one former ambassador put his suspicions about the French motives for opposing action against Saddam.

The list quoted by al-Mada included members of Arab ruling families, religious organisations, politicians and political parties from Egypt, Jordan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Sudan, China, Austria, France and other countries. But no names were available last night.

Organisations named include the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian Communist Party, India's Congress Party and the Palestine Liberation Organisation. The United States and Britain launched the war on Iraq on 19 March, 2003 without UN approval after tense negotiations in the Security Council collapsed in the face of a veto threat from France. France's relations with Britain and the US deteriorated to their worst point in decades over the Iraq rift, and have yet to heal.

China, another Security Council permanent member with veto power which is named by al-Mada, was also opposed to the Iraq invasion. Arab countries, in addition to France, had warned of the risk of instability spreading throughout the Middle East as a result of the war. Turkey, a Nato member, was a crucial player because of the opposition to the war among its Muslim majority population. There is the possibility that the documents in al-Mada are forgeries. At present there is almost a war of documents under way as Iraqis come to the realisation that they could be used as blackmail or as a settling of scores. And the leak of the documents could be a manipulation by the US-backed authorities in Iraq to discredit France.

The Iraqi authorities will be keen to interview prominent Iraqi officials held by the Coalition Provisional Authority who could shed light on illegal payments. Those officials include the former oil minister, Amer Mohammed Rashid. Assem Jihad, an oil ministry spokesman, said the documents stolen from his ministry may prove Saddam used bribery to gain support. "Anyone stealing Iraqi wealth will be prosecuted," he said.

Although under sanctions from the 1990 invasion of Kuwait until after the second Gulf War, the Iraqi government could sell oil under a UN agreement that proceeds from the oil sales be used to buy food, medicine and basic supplies.

Some international companies selling goods to Iraq may have paid commissions to Iraqi officials that were deposited in Arab banks in exchange for contracts under the oil for food deal. A paper trail should exist.

Saddam smuggled out billions of dollars worth of oil through Turkey, a Syrian pipeline and Iranian coastal waters. The Americans turned a blind eye to the smuggling via Turkey, because they needed to keep their Nato ally on board.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=485407

Iran: Uranium Enrichment Halt to Be Short

Wed January 28, 2004 11:06 AM ET

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's suspension of uranium enrichment will be short-lived and the Islamic Republic will restart the program whenever it chooses, Hassan Rohani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Wednesday.
Iran announced it had suspended uranium enrichment in November as a goodwill gesture. It was under intense U.S.-led international pressure to prove it was not seeking atomic weapons.

"It (enrichment) is not stopped, rather it is suspended and this will not last long. Whenever we think it is right we will restart it," the mid-ranking cleric told a students gathering, reported by the official IRNA news agency.

Western diplomats have told Reuters Iran has been acquiring large amounts of equipment for centrifuges used to enrich uranium despite its promise to suspend all activities.

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel nuclear power stations for domestic electricity supply. But a further enrichment to so-called weapons grade can be deployed in warheads.

Iran is building a nuclear power station at the southern port of Bushehr with Russian assistance and has ordered plans drawn up for a second facility.

It insists its nuclear program is geared toward meeting booming domestic electricity demand and freeing up its finite fossil fuels for export.

Although Iran last month signed the Additional Protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that allows snap U.N. inspections of nuclear facilities, pressure on Iran to come clean on its activities is still fierce.

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi has said that under the NPT, Iran was entitled to pursue nuclear activities for peaceful purposes. "We have suspended the activities of uranium enrichment, but this does not mean we are going to stop it forever," he said.

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said last week Iran would face "serious implications" if it did not fully co-operate with efforts to monitor its nuclear program.

The father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb Abdul Qadeer Khan is a key suspect in an investigation into the sale of nuclear technology to Iran, Pakistani officials said Monday.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=4229783

Iran students urge poll boycott

Angry MPs are holding a sit-in against the ban in parliament

Iran's main pro-democracy student group has called for a national boycott of next month's parliamentary elections.
It said a mass ban of reformists from standing meant there was no chance of a free ballot, according to a statement carried by the state Irna news agency.

The Office to Consolidate Unity also urged reformist MPs to continue their protests against the poll blacklist.

Reformists oppose the conservative Guardians Council's ballot ban on more than 3,000 candidates.

"The reason why people are so disillusioned is because of the existence of powerful bodies which in the end render parliament powerless," the group said in its statement.

Even if one person has been disqualified unfairly, as president, I will defend his right

President Mohammad Khatami
It said the only way out of the political deadlock is to hold a referendum on the future of the Islamic republic.

The BBC's correspondent in Tehran says up until now the student movement, historically a powerful political voice in Iran, has kept a low profile in this crisis.

In the past they have accused the reformists of failing to live up to their promises.

Resignations

President Mohammad Khatami, himself a reformist, says he still believes the row can be resolved but warned he would not accept even a single "unfair" disqualification.

"Even if one person has been disqualified unfairly, as president, I will defend his right," Mr Khatami told reporters after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

The president said ministers and vice-presidents had submitted their resignations in protest over the mass disqualifications.

But with negotiations continuing, he said he "will not accept resignations of any kind".

The 12-member Guardians Council has disqualified more than a third of the 8,200 people - including more than 80 sitting MPs - who applied to run in the 20 February elections.

So far it has reinstated about 700 of the disqualified candidates, after Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered a review.

It is still examining appeals and is due to announce its final decision on the others on 30 January

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3437391.stm

Iranian students call election boycott
crisis not over
Wed Jan 28,11:58 AM ET Add World - AFP to My Yahoo!

TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran's main pro-democracy student group weighed into a bitter political stand-off, calling for a boycott of next month's parliament elections in protest over the mass disqualification of reformist candidates.

And dampening hopes that the Islamic republic could pull out of one of its worst political crisis amid intense government wrangling with hardliners, embattled President Mohammad Khatami (news - web sites) cautioned it was too early to say if an acceptable solution could be found.

A statement from the Office to Consolidate Unity (OCU) -- a coalition of pro-reform student groups -- dealt a symbolic blow to the president when it said voters should stay at home on February 20.

"Noting the fact that people's votes have no effect ... and that there is no possibility for fair and free elections, there is no justification for people to participate in these elections," the OCU said in a statement carried by the state news agency IRNA Wednesday.

Student activists, who last summer sparked a nationwide security alert when they led a series of anti-regime protests, represent one of the main driving forces behind the reform movement, put into power by a massive youth vote.

Their call for a boycott was seen as reflecting mounting frustration with the president, who has been widely criticised for being too weak in the face of more powerful conservatives.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1511&ncid=1511&e=14&u=/afp/20040128/wl_afp/iran_vote_040128165849

The Anti-Federalist Society
Why Turkey, Iran, and Syria all have worries about Iraq's new federalist outlook.

by Gerald Robbins
01/28/2004 11:40:00 AM

TURKEY'S PRIME MINISTER Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to meet with President George Bush in Washington today. Among the topics that will be discussed are Iraq's political future. While the aim of this parley is to correct the recent dissonance in U.S.-Turkish relations, recent signals from Ankara indicate that this will not be a simple task.

The two leaders last met in December 2002. The major issue then concerned Washington's ultimately futile attempt to secure Turkish support for Operation Iraqi Freedom. Both sides now wish to move past those differences, yet Iraq still remains a contentious topic. There's major discord over how to govern post-Saddam Iraq. Whereas Washington believes in a federalist solution, Ankara thinks otherwise.

Generally speaking, Turks are wary about federalism. It is a concept at variance with the nation's administrative infrastructure. History explains why: The Ottoman Empire's decentralized character was a major factor in its eventual downfall. Loose management of a multiethnic population resulted in constant rebellions and general instability.

Kemal Ataturk, modern Turkey's founding father, saw autonomy's detrimental effects and sought to rectify it. His solution was to create a strong, centralized system, largely derived from the French model of governance. This structure has remained intact throughout the past 80 years, warding off all attempts at reform.

THE ISSUE of the Kurds substantiates Turkey's centralist nature. Fears that a centralized Iraq can augment separatist notions among Turkey's estimated 13 to 16 million Kurds (approximately 20 to 25 percent of the nation's 67 million inhabitants) are based on precedent.

From the early 1980s to mid 1990s, the Turkish government fought a Kurdish insurrection which claimed 37,000 lives. Turkey's national psyche is still scarred.

Yet comparing Turkey's Kurds with their Iraqi brethren is mixing apples and oranges. The Kurdish populace is a collection of different tribes and dialects that are often at cross-purposes with one another. This even extends to the political sphere--Turkey's Kurdish separatists adhere to Marxist-Leninist precepts while Iraq's Kurdish leadership reflects a meshing of clan affiliation with social democratic thought.

It can be further argued that a de facto federalism already exists in Kurdish Iraq. A U.N.-sponsored Kurdish enclave was established after the 1991 Gulf War ended. Cognizant of Turkey's cross-border concerns, it hasn't turned into a staging area for Kurdish separatism. Trading thrives between this landlocked entity and the Turkish interior.

FEARS ABOUT FEDERALISM aren't a uniquely Turkish phenomenon. The very idea of decentralization also worries Iraq and Syria. In Teheran's case, the prospect of a federalist structure succeeding within the region is particularly vexing. It not only possesses a sizeable minority of 6.5 to 8 million Kurds, but nearly one quarter of Iran--66.5 million people--are Azeri Turks. When Arab, Baluchi, and other groups are further added to Iran's ethnic picture, it turns out that only 51 percent of the country's total population is of Persian descent.

NONETHELESS, democratic Turkey, theocratic Iran, and authoritarian Syria are all united in their stances against federalism. There's a censuring tone that's nearly indistinguishable among their respective leaderships. When Syrian president Bashir al-Assad visited Turkey earlier this month (the first time a Syrian leader traveled there), he stated that a Kurdish state in Iraq would be "a red line, not only as far as Syria and Turkey, but for all the countries in the region." Prime Minister Erdogan recently told the Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram that federation "contradicts the reality of Iraq and the will of neighboring countries." Even the Turkish military, usually known for averting public discourse, had their say. "If there is a federal structure in Iraq on an ethnic basis, the future will be very difficult and bloody," one of Turkey's top generals commented.

Amid all this knee-jerk reaction, signs of a more amenable tone towards federalism have begun to appear. Several Turkish analysts note that it isn't federalism that they object to per se, but the emphasis on an ethnic and religious criteria for Iraq. A regional federalism is advocated instead, with Germany seen as the ideal prototype: They would like to see Bavaria's relation to Berlin emulated by the Kurds formulating their ties to Baghdad.

Germany's model can be studied, but to view it as the potential solution to Iraq's political future is an exercise in specious thinking. Bavarian and Turkish sociopolitics can't be homogenized into a one-size-fits-all apparatus. There is no set methodology to federalism, Iraq's model will differ from German and even American designs.

At least the Turks appear willing to give federalism a closer look. It doesn't fit current regional viewpoints, but Ankara and her autocratic neighbors lack any viable alternatives. It will be a tough task marketing, but decentralization is the best solution for Iraq and the future Middle East.

Gerald Robbins is an Associate Scholar with the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/003/665aoqbw.asp?pg=2

Iran's governors confront Tehran

Provincial officials refuse to allow elections unless candidates reinstated

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) - Iran's provincial governors escalated the confrontation today over who can run in next month's elections by declaring they would not allow polling in their areas unless most of the disqualifications are overturned.
"All provincial governors have announced unanimously that, under present circumstances, there will be no possibility of holding elections," Interior Ministry spokesman Jahanbakhsh Khanjani told The Associated Press.

While Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has the authority to overrule the governors, their declaration suggests that if the hardliners responsible for the disqualifications do not back down, they will have to resort to extraordinary measures to hold the legislative elections on Feb. 20.

The hardline Guardian Council has disqualified more than a third of the 8,200 candidates, including more than 80 sitting legislators. The move has triggered Iran's biggest political crisis in years, with reformers accusing conservatives of trying to skewer the elections.

Khanjani said the governors made the decision at a meeting in Tehran that ended tonight.

Earlier today, Iran's largest group of pro-reform students urged people to boycott next month's elections in protest against the disqualifications. It was the first time any political group had called for a boycott since the crisis erupted.

President Mohammad Khatami tried to head off a boycott of the legislative elections on Feb. 20, telling reporters he would strive to reverse the disqualifications down to the last unfairly treated candidate.

"There is no possibility of fair and free elections," the student movement, the Office for Fostering Unity, said in a statement carried on the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

"Considering that people's vote has no affect on the establishment, and there is no way to hold fair and free elections, there is no justification for people to participate in this election," the students said in their statement.

The students praised the reformist legislators, who have been staging sit-in protests in the parliament building since the disqualifications were announced earlier this month.

Khatami set aside earlier hints that he might resign over the affair and pledged to work both to reinstate the candidates and to defend the reform program that hardliners have largely succeeded in blocking.

"Even if one person has been disqualified unfairly, as the president, I will defend his right," Khatami told reporters after a cabinet meeting today.

Appearing more confident than he has been in recent weeks, Khatami said: "If somebody is a thief, or is a drug smuggler or documents prove he has worked to overthrow the establishment, he is not qualified to run. But all those disqualified were so? ... Many of those disqualified deserve to run."

The Guardian Council has reinstated more than 700 candidates, Khatami said. "Based on our talks, this figure is set to rise," he added.

Iran's chief of elections, Deputy Interior Minister Morteza Moballegh, criticized the Guardian Council today, accusing them of taking too long to review the disqualifications in a more sympathetic light, as supreme leader Khamenei has urged them to do.

"Not even one prominent person or legislator is among those reinstated," Moballegh said in a statement on the Interior Ministry's website. "The trend of reinstatements is not convincing. If only a few disqualified persons are to be reinstated, we won't hold such elections."

Khatami referred to ongoing meetings between the Guardian Council and four cabinet ministers who were assigned to reach a compromise after top reformists and hard-liners met Khamenei on Monday night.

Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani, one of the four ministers, was optimistic today.

"The necessary ground has been prepared to settle the dispute over the disqualification of candidates," IRNA quoted Shamkhani as saying.

But Iran's largest reformist political party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front, sounded pessimistic, saying the number of reinstatements was insufficient.

"It's not important how many disqualified candidates are reinstated. The key is that candidates of all tendencies must be free to run unless strong legal reasons proves them to be unfit," said Saeed Shariati, a leader of the front.

Khatami said he has not accepted the resignation of his cabinet ministers and vice presidents because "we must hold competitive elections."

Last week, the government announced that most of Iran's six vice-presidents and 24 ministers had tendered their resignations. They were not identified, and the resignations needed Khatami's approval to become effective.

The president said he intended to complete his second four-year term, which expires in May 2005, in order to defend a program of political and social reforms he has pursued since his first election in 1997.

"Reform is in our essence. The content of my work has been to bring reforms ... I've come and will stay to the end," he said.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1075301686124&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968705899037

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