Paying for their own ships and horses, and carving out homesteads, or returning with a profit on balance.
Thirty five years after Apollo, where are the moon settlers? Where is the lunar equivalent to the East India or Hudson Bay Companies?
There's a slight glitch, you see. It costs millions of dollars to put a poung of gear on the moon, and you can breath the air there. No settlers, no private enterprise.
If there were private moonbases paying their own way today, you would have a valid comparison to Lewis and Clark.
But there aren't, and you don't.
So I'll support a manned Mars mission, sure thing. Just as soon as the private moon bases are paying for themselves.
Otherwise, all we'll be paying for is a trillion dollar photo opportunity.
Robots can do the science, and 1% of the cost.
Note to self: check spelling before posting when touch-typing while watching television.
Not true. Robots can do great science indeed. However, remember Hadley Rille? Those MEN furthered our understanding of the origin of the moon. It is doubtful a robot explorer bringing back a few pounds of rock would have done that.
I don't believe anyone has said, "Mars or Bust!". The only way we get to Mars is through our experiences on the Moon.
Robots can do the science, and 1% of the cost.
Have you ever looked at a photo of an outcrop, and then visited one? Ever looked at an image of a quartz crystal, and then held one in your hands? Bit of a difference, wouldn't you say? Several formations I have run into out in the field were initially identified on the basis of smell. Certain rocks can be identified by feel alone. Geomorphologists and structural geologists put together the history of a region by what they discover based on field observations. These are things that are all lost without the human component.
This is what happens when private money gets into the game. That won't happen until the technology matures a little and we start seeing some interesting core samples indicating the presence of who-knows-what. You are right, the explosion into space won't happen until that day. The best we can do in the meantime is keep pushing the technology forward, and start gathering those samples.
Robots can do the science, and 1% of the cost.
I don't think we're necessarily at odds here. I would like to see a series of robot probes checking out likely looking moons and asteroids. We need to be able to do some seismic surveying. If that can be done robotically, fine, if we need men with "boots on the ground(?)" then they will need to be there. As the samples get more interesting, and the technology advances, at some point the two curves cross and suddenly you have Exxon launching their own probes. Or whatever.
By the time the moon bases are paying for themselves, the moon will be pushing for independence, and throwing rocks if it doesn't get it!
My chief concern is that we will have lost our ability, technically and economically, which will leave other nations on Earth ahead of us, in particular, the Chinese. Who controls the seas will ultimately control the land, and this planetary island is no different. If you control and militarize space, who can do anything about it who is not there already?
If we are to remain first-world on our planet, we had best be up to speed off of our planet.