[AuH2ORepublican]

Interesting résumé. However, more important to her chances of pulling of a monumental upset will be how well she speaks Spanish and how well connected she is with Hispanic politicians.

One way that she could actually win is if Doggett wins the bloody primary and Democrat State Senator Gonzalo Barrientos (who represents Austin and was a natural for the district but didn't run because he was afraid of Doggett's money) puts all his weight behind the Republican (behind the scenes, of course) so that Doggett is defeated and he can have easy pickings in 2006 (when Doggett probably wouldn't run and when the Democrat nature of the district and Bush's absence atop the ballot would give Barrientos the seat). Of course, the GOP thought a similar thing would happen in 2002 in Anglo Democrat's Eliot Engel's CD in Westchester and the Bronx, where black Democrats could conceivably mobilize behind black Republican Joseph Holland in order to defeat Engel and allow a black Democrat to waltz to victory in 2004, but none of that happened and Engel won in a cakewalk.

[Dog Gone]

The GOP created this district with a full expectation that it would be won by a hispanic Democrat. Doggett's entry gives an opportunity, but it still is a long shot at best.

A victory by the GOP this year would almost certainly be a fluke and couldn't be repeated unless the winner voted like the worst RINO ever. It's Rat territory.

If the GOP strategy to bring more hispanics into the party is successful, then things might change in the next 10 years. But hoping for good things out of this district this year requires hoping for the perfect storm.

[Amish]

Bonilla's old district was 66% Hispanic, and he took it and held it.

I would not say this one would be impossible, but certainly uphill.