Replies

If he were wise, Bush would take his cue from the 1996 election. Conservatives stayed home or voted Perot because Dole was quite weak on key conservative issues.

If he/Rove are wise, they would study the 2000 election. 1996 is not relevant. Bush barely won in 2000.

There is no doubt that Bush probably picked up democrat supporters after 9/11 and Iraq, but chances are they are in states that are heavily conservative to begin with. There is also no doubt that he probably picked up democrats here and there over the illegal immigrant issue.

You have to offset that by people that voted for him in 2000 getting upset over Iraq, illegal immigrants, etc. and either not voting or voting democrat (including democrats that voted for him in 2000 but are going to vote democrat in 2004). Throw in democrats that didn't vote in 2000 (such as in Florida) that are not so apathetic anymore and are making sure to vote in 2004 (including the dead and convicted ones, lol). You could throw in a state like Arizona - I'm sure the folks down there are pretty riled up over his immigration plans. The list goes on.

The question has to be asked - in the "swing" states, did he pick up more votes than he lost since 2000, as well as did he lose any states that were very close and went his way in 2000.