There is cynicism in Iran, but civil society will recover
Almost a century after the 1906 constitutional revolution, a new crisis is brewing in Iran, a fact highlighted by the recent decision of the Council og Guardians to bar candidates to next months parliamentary elections. The outcome of this nascent parliamentary struggle remains to be seen. However the implications of the contest are great not only for the 70 million Iranians who have repeatedly voted for political reform, but also for the wider Middle East region, where opposition and reformist political expression is seldom permitted.
Understanding Iran?s political landscape requires distinguishing between theory and practice. In theory, the Iranian political system has democratic manifestations, most prominently a popularly elected president and Parliament. In practice, however, unelected institutions such as the Council of Guardians often intervene in this landscape to reject parliamentary bills and to vet, and sometimes rebuff, potential presidential and parliamentary candidates.
This vetting process is what pushed the current Majlis, or Parliament, to stage a continuing sit-in to protest against the disqualification of potential candidates from the upcoming Feb. 20 legislative elections. Earlier this month the Council of Guardians barred 3,605 candidates from running (some 200 have since been reinstated), 84 of whom were incumbents, including President Mohammed Khatami?s brother, Mohammad Reza Khatami, and others from the dominant reformist Second of Khordad Party. Candidates can be disqualified for any number of reasons, ranging from bribery charges to refusing to support the constitution, the notion of Velayat-e Faqih (guardianship of the jurisconsult) or the supreme leader.
However, the reasons for the recent disqualifications have yet to be disclosed. In solidarity with the Majlis representatives, Irans 27 provincial governors threatened to resign, along with at least 10 members of Khatamis Cabinet. The president himself has vacillated in his usual manner, blending statements of support such as ?at this stage my historical mission is to prevent the illegal seizure of the levers of power, to appeals for compromise and concessions in line with the official position of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The political chaos has emerged at a unique moment in Iranian history. Having barely recovered from the earthquake at Bam, the Iranian government has been under pressure to accommodate its domestic constituency, while also playing its hand internationally. The reform movement and Khatamis 1997 election brought hope and promise to many Iranians, who overwhelmingly sought a reversal of the countrys international isolation and relief from the impact of the Iran-Iraq war and economic and political repression.
Such hope proved elusive, however, as conservative-dominated institutions threatened by the prospect of political transformation exerted every effort to emasculate the reform movement. And they have succeeded, with Khatami and his reformist allies blocked at every turn. Yet what many Iran analysts and policymakers have overlooked is the lack of unity among reformists themselves in the formulation of their political and economic objectives. And as reformists have pursued diverse, over-ambitious aims, they have further alienated apprehensive conservative bastions of power, such as the judiciary and the Council of Guardians.
Conservative clerics have been awaiting an opportunity to reassert control over Iran?s system, and the parliamentary elections provide the perfect occasion. However, this power play is strategically significant for other reasons besides the obvious aspiration of conservatives to tighten their hold on power. Though marginalized by the wave of popular support for the reform movement, the hardliners remain the ultimate decision-makers in Iran. By rendering the reform movement impotent, they hope to regain the initiative with a cynical population disappointed by the failed promises of the reformists.
Change engineered by the conservatives would most likely seek to emulate a Chinese model favoring economic and cultural liberalization over political openness which is already the trend in Iran. With unemployment and inflation skyrocketing, social controls would continue to be relaxed in such a way that youths, who make up half of the Iranian population, would be allowed greater freedom to interact in public, even being permitted to attend open-air concerts a recent development. Such changes could prolong the life span of the failing Islamic regime, albeit ephemerally since the existence of an autonomous civil society is now inherent to Iran?s political conscious.
A conservative victory and unified government could also provide a solid opening for engagement with the United States. Khatami was allowed to pursue a policy of detente and dialogue that restored Iran?s reputation with the European Union (EU) and the Arab world, but little progress has been made with the US. With no domestic reformist threat on the horizon, the conservatives may choose to pursue a policy of engagement with Washington, even compromising on such issues as weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, Israel and human rights. This process would be delicate, however, as the Bush administration and the EU have opposed the undemocratic exclusion of parliamentary candidates.
Khamenei could intervene at the eleventh hour and allow all the disqualified candidates to run for office. By doing so he would come across as a benevolent leader supportive of democracy. This maneuver would be astute considering the apathy that has taken hold of the Iranian electorate. In light of the lack of popular participation in the last municipal elections, as well as the generally pessimistic mood among youths after the protests and arrests last summer, it is likely that the decline in voter participation will continue, enabling conservative candidates to dominate in the forthcoming elections.
Most noteworthy during this time of political discord is the lack of public solidarity with the ongoing protest efforts in the Majlis. Perhaps Iranians are bored with watching the unending power struggle between members of the political elite, or maybe students, who are in the midst of their examination period, have grown tired of protesting in vain. Whatever the answer, such skepticism and discord, by demobilizing the potential reformist opposition, are strategically important to the conservatives? strategy.
Ultimately, however, the fatigue and doubt prevailing among Iran?s dynamic, young and pro-Western population will only be temporary. The seeds of political reform have been planted in the collective imagination. The future prospects for political change are undeniable, since Iran?s century-long democratic struggle has finally taken root in a blooming civil society.
A conservative clampdown, and the ensuing political respite, might in fact re-energize Iran?s vibrant population and induce Iranians to once again push for the political, economic and social reforms needed to embrace the challenges of the new century. This struggle for self-determination is without doubt the most promising in the region and one that should be observed and championed from the sidelines.
Sanam Vakil, who was recently in Iran, is a doctoral candidate and lecturer in Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. She wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/22_01_04_e.aspThe hardliners are working aginst their own good.
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=443549§ion=news Iran hardliners attack pro-reform gathering
Thu 22 January, 2004 10:58
By Parisa Hafezi
TEHRAN (Reuters) - Scores of hardliners have attacked a reformist gathering in central Iran, injuring at least five people in the first outbreak of violence of a tense build-up to parliamentary elections, according to a reformist deputy.
Political tensions are running high in Iran after the Guardian Council -- an unelected hardline body with sweeping powers -- vetoed thousands of reformist candidates from standing in the February 20 vote.
The mass disqualification of allies of moderate President Mohammad Khatami prompted dozens of top officials to threaten to resign and MPs to stage a 12-day sit-in protest at parliament.
But until now most Iranians have appeared unmoved by the political standoff and there had been no reports of large street protests or clashes.
The violence erupted on Wednesday when a speaker at a pro- reform gathering in the central city of Hamedan accused the Guardian Council of disregarding Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's advice for the disqualifications to be reviewed.
"Some 200 hardliners attacked the podium, broke the microphone and punched people," the parliamentarian, who asked not to be named, told Reuters on Thursday.
At least five people, including Hamedan MP Hossein Loqmanian, were injured, and one person was hospitalised, the official IRNA news agency reported.
It said the attackers in Hamedan chanted slogans such as "Death to hypocrites" and "We are ready to sacrifice our lives".
Hardline vigilante groups fiercely loyal to Iran's clerical establishment have attacked reformist gatherings and student protests in the past.
LACK OF LOYALTY
Reformers insist the 24-year-old Islamic Republic has to become a more democratic state where the rule of law is paramount if it is to survive. Hardliners fear reforms might open the floodgates of change and sweep aside clerical rule.
Liberals accuse the Guardian Council of trying to clear the way for conservatives to regain control of parliament, which they lost to reformists in the 2000 parliamentary election.
The council judged many of those disqualified to have displayed insufficient loyalty to the constitution and the system of clerical rule began after the 1979 revolution.
The Guardian Council has so far re-admitted into the race only 200 of the 3,100 candidates who appealed their bans.
The council -- a 12-man body comprised of conservative clerics and Islamic jurists -- has until the end of the month to announce its revised candidate lists but reformists accuse it of dragging its feet to disrupt their campaigns.
Public support for reformists has waned since Khatami's shock election win in 1997 when millions of Iranians backed the mid-ranking cleric and his pledges to enforce the rule of law, bolster democratic institutions and foster a more open society.
But hardliners have used their power bases in the judiciary and Guardian Council to close scores of liberal publications, jail dozens and reformist activists and block legislation proposed by the pro-reform parliament