Zogby: Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative

zogby.com ^ | January 20, 2004 | zogby

[finnman69]

Zogby Tracking - Iowa
Date Dean Gephardt Kerry Edwards Clark Lieberman
January 16-18 22% 18% 25% 21% 2% 1%
January 15-17 23% 19% 24% 18% 3% 1%
January 14-16 22% 19% 23% 18% 3% 1%
January 13-15 19% 19% 24% 17% 3% 1%
January 12-14 21% 21% 22% 17% 3% 1%
January 11-13 24% 21% 21% 15% 3% 1%
January 10-12 28% 23% 17% 14% 2% 1%
January 9-11 26% 23% 16% 12% 2% 2%
January 8-10 25% 23% 15% 14% 3% 3

[Capt. Tom]

Bush’s Job Performance 49% Positive, 50% Negative;

A good State of the Union speech should take care of that. - Tom

[LS]

I'm sorry, but there is no polling evidence at all that Bush's "conservative base" is eroding, in any way, shape, or form.

That's why I noted that when pollsters get inside the numbers, they are finding Bush's GOP support is in the 90s, which is, I hate to tell you, unheard of.

[KQQL]

ZOGBY and others Recent IA Polling VS Actual Results.

---------------------------------------------

Kerry Edwards Dean Gephardt Clark Lieberman

Final Caucus Results 37.7% 31.9% 18.1% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Poll Dean Gephardt Kerry Edwards Clark Lieberman

Zogby Tracking (1/16-18) | 22% 18% 25% 21% 2% 1%

Insider Advantage (1/16-18) 19% 13% 24% 16% 1% 1%

Iowa Poll (1/13-16) 20% 18% 26% 23% 2% 1%

SurveyUSA (1/13-15) 24% 20% 21% 22% n/a n/a

KCCI (1/12-14) 22% 18% 21% 18% 2% 1%

LA Times (1/5-8) 30% 23% 18% 11% 4% 2%

QC Times (1/4-8) 23% 18% 15% 9% n/a n/a

http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/iowa_polls.html
=================================================

WINNER:
Iowa Poll (1/13-16) Dean 20% Dickey 18% Kerry 26% Eddy 23%

[finnman69]

2002 Elections.....ooops

Zogby 10/26 - 10/29 49%R 51%D D + 2%

[oceanview]

but it works. look at Kerry. the media uses skewed polls to pull undecideds in the direction they want. they wanted Dean defeated, float a few polls showing Kerry making a move, and the sheeple will climb on board.

[ItsOurTimeNow]

Is this the same Zogby who considers "fair" to be a negative ranking?

[Diogenesis]

ZOGBY SAUCE DATA [ERROR ANALYSIS]:

Zogby IA Poll for 01/18/04 - Kerry 24, Dean 23, Gephardt 19, Edwards 18.
Actual IA caucus 01/20/04 - Kerry 38, Edwards 32, Dean 18, Gephardt drops out

CONCLUSION - ZOGBY off by 14% on Kerry, and a roomful of monkeys could do better
ZOGBY attempts to influence polls, for what purpose?

[KQQL]

@

[theDentist]

That's Bush's fault, pushing that "immigration amnesty" debacle, not to mention the McCain-Feingold bill.

[mystery-ak]

Have at it.

[shhrubbery!]

Zogby gained undeserved credibility years ago when he was one of the few to predict an election right.

He's been off-base ever since then, but continues to use the media's credulousness to spread biased polls, serving his pro-Arab anti-Bush agenda.

[phil_will1]

My recollection is that W has consistently fared poorly against "an unnamed Democrat", but polls much better when matched against any of the likely Dem nominees 1 on 1.

Perhaps the Dems should capitalize on that by not publicly announcing who their nominee is. Would it be legal to just put "Democratic nominee", rather than someone's name, on the ballot?

[Plutarch]

That Bush should have lower numbers just after announcing he is planning to give illegals amnesty is not such a bad thing.

[GROOVY]

Looks like Zig-Zog was off by 13% on Kerry and 11% on Edwards for the Iowa caucus with his last poll. Not sure why commentators were saying the polls were so accurate last night.

[KQQL]

Too bad the MADMAN LOST IA

[DrDeb]

ZOGBY POLL RESULTS MUST ALWAYS BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FOLLOWING DISCLAIMER:


Zogby uses a 4-category Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor schemata vs the traditional 2-category approve/disapprove schemata:

Zogby includes Excellent and Good responses only in his summative 'approve' stat, even though he admits that at least 50% of those who answer 'Fair' would also indicate that they APPROVE of the President's job performance. For this reason, Zogby's APPROVAL ratings are always 6-10 points BELOW traditional approve/disapprove surveys like the ABCNews/WashingtonPost completed during the SAME time period!

ABCNEWS/WASHINGTONPOST:
1/15-18/04
58% approve / 39% disapprove (+19)
[93% approval from Republicans]

[finnman69]

Zog did call the Kerry Edwards surge correctly. the final caucus numbers are a little different as the caucuses are not straight up and down votes.

[mywholebodyisaweapon]

Two questions:

1. How were "likely" voters chosen?
2. Isn't Zogby figuring in Democrat voter fraud?

Also, it sounds like Zogby's result would result in an electoral victory for Bush as well as a popular vote victory. Not bad, espeically when there isn't a very well defined opponent.

[isthisnickcool]

I believe John Zogby about like I believe his brother. Which means I don't CAIR what either one say about anything.