Replies

Ahem

I still think the nominee is going to be someone you have written off. John Forbes Kerry.
But I was just outside raking up about 10 gajillion leaves, and while doing so it hit me exactly why Dean won't win if he gets the nomination, and why he probably won't even win the nomination.
He started off his campaign with a speech where he came out and said how he represents the Democratic wing of the Democratic party. He was claiming the Wellstone line as his own. But it wasn't the Wellstone mantle he was shooting for-- he was going after the people who found the Wellstone memorial to be inspiring. He was going after the people who were chanting right along with Wellstone's son, "We will win! We will win!" He has tapped into the same "energy" that energized that spectacle of the living dead desecrating the memory of one of their own.
America was repulsed by it then. They are repulsed by it now- which is why in matchup poll after matchup poll, Dean comes in below all other Democrats when put head-to-head with Bush.
I think a lot of Democrats are starting to sense it too. There has been all of this talk about Dean's momentum, but the fact is he is treading water in some places (NH, where his lead is what it was weeks ago), sinking in others (Iowa), and completely underwater in others (South Carolina)...

That was by yours truly, November 9th, 2003.

I think I'll reward meself with a beer. So if not Dean, who? Gephardt, perhaps. He would have the early win, the name recognition. But he's spent too much defending Iowa, and he has lost a few unions already. Clark? Empty suit. Edwards? Too far back in too many places. Lieberman? He's shown to have about zero support on his own. Kerry could still make it. He has the money. If he can come back on Dean in New Hampshire, he'll get an amazing amount of press for being the new comeback kid. And I think Dean will come back to the pack in New Hampshire. But I still wouldn't rule out Gore making a reappearance into things.

You know, dumbass, you should proofread better.

All of this was in the Nov post, not in my reply today:

So if not Dean, who? Gephardt, perhaps. He would have the early win, the name recognition. But he's spent too much defending Iowa, and he has lost a few unions already. Clark? Empty suit. Edwards? Too far back in too many places. Lieberman? He's shown to have about zero support on his own. Kerry could still make it. He has the money. If he can come back on Dean in New Hampshire, he'll get an amazing amount of press for being the new comeback kid. And I think Dean will come back to the pack in New Hampshire. But I still wouldn't rule out Gore making a reappearance into things.