[Jaysun]

Do you have a long term opinion?

How long term? I usually do not hold a position for longer than a week. Most of the time it's just a few days. I have set up my fundamentals for swing trades and day trades, so the longest I'd be comfortable to predict is for the next 2-3 weeks. I'd predict a continued gain in the dollar and would look for the EUR/USD to flatten out around 1.19 - 1.20 sometime within the next few weeks. Just my opinion.

[imawit]

Most of the time it's just a few days

Understood. Do you ever hold over a weekend ? This also explains that you would have to have a smaller reversal number than I use which is in the 5.5% neighborhood as the smallest threshold for reversal.

Are you playing actual cash or an index ? Not planning on trading myself but I wanted to get a feel for the dynamics.

Using your 1.19-1.20 for the Euro I get the USD under .84 best case. So I would guess that there is not an arithmetic direct relationship. Where does that place the USD in pure numbers.