I don't know that I can agree as to the wages earned by illegals. I suspect that you might be right that they are minimal, but I read too many stories of illegals in construction work paying 20-40 per hour. There are also lawn services down here that pay exorbitant rates. Legal landscapers are going out of business because they are being undercut. But for the sake of argument, let's assume your statement is correct.
You state that the proposal calls for minimum wages. I read Bush's speech and did not see that in there. In fact, I remember thinking about whether they could get around minimum wages laws somehow. Correct me if I am wrong here.
You further assume that the illegals will register. I posted an article tonight from the Naples Daily News where the illegals talk about not registering. In fact, they kind of like the way it is with the exception of getting caught. Only a complete amnesty would get them to come out of the woods.
Another assumption is that everyone (workers and employers) will play by the new rules. Why should they? They don't now and we do nothing about it. I know that Bush promised strict enforcement in the future, but quite frankly I don't believe that either. There is no desire to enforce our immigration laws. We are told that it is not feasible to do so right now, but it will be in the future? I don't buy it. Let the government show they can enforce the laws first.
Think about this for a moment. If we truly need a guest a program, why not offer it only to those who are NOT here? You want to get enrolled, go back home and sign up. The reason: We can't enforce the laws we have now. We are hoping that the illegals will walk into the INS office and give themselves up. That is what this program is all about and the illegals are not that stupid.
Thus my "pessimism" regarding the proposal. This is not a fix. I laid out the most draconian fix which is never going to happen but there is another one less draconian but also stands little chance of working.
The INS has a grand total of 2000 field agents to enforce the immigration laws over the entire country. Do the math 2000 divided into anywhere from 8 to 14 million depending who is publishing the numbers. The Feds could boost the number of field agent a hundred fold and still not make a dent. It is obvious that without the help of the State and local governments the Feds alone cannot make the difference. The problem is that the Bush administration has already ask for state cooperation and even after 911 almost to a man they told him to kiss off. The ugly truth is that these illegal aliens are not only tolerated by the states they are protected from the Feds. That is why I am pessimistic. That is why nothing effective will ever be done until the states themselves get involved.