Arrest Links Pakistan to Nuke Black Market

AP via NYT ^ | January 16, 2004 | Staff

[Cronos]

I agree with you whole heartedly on this. The only was is pre-emption. Dubya was correct to Attack Afghanistan and he is correct in liberating Iraq. Libya is proof of this. Now we MUST eliminate the Islamic bomb. If we let it be it will be a danger for us -- just like Clintack let theAlQaida rip apart Afghanistan, if we let them regroup, we will have a nuclear 9/11

[justa-hairyape]

If the Pakistani government is overtaken by fanatical Islamist, the first most serious threat will be with India over Cashmir. India alone can keep the Pakistani armies busy, the problem as you pointed out will be smuggling the nukes into Iran and eventually Saudi Arabia. As long as India is a threat most of the islamic nukes will be needed in Pakistan to counter the Indian nuke force. The Islamic fantaics however, dont always possess clear strategic thinking. And there are the Saudi Royals looking to see a return on their oil dollars.

[Beck_isright]

I tend to lean towards a differnt scenario. After the election the Lebanese-Syrian problem will be resolved. Unfortunately, this will draw Iran into action. If Iran fails to act to defend their version of Islamofacism, then the Islamic radicals will ignore their edicts.

How does this tie into Pakistan problem?

Simple:

1. Assume Mussharaf is dead by 2006. That puts nukes on the market.
2. Thus India and Pakistan will be at war. And if we do not deal with Iran, Israel has already guranteed they will.
3. Pakistani nukes will show up in Iran. If we don't head them off at the pass and destroy the Syrian regime, it would not be long after the arriveal of nukes in Iran that Hezbollah would have them and use them against Israel.
4. Now the bad news: We don't have enough troops to fight Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Pakistan at the same time. Thus why we will draw India into the WoT with all kinds of equipment and gurantees.

This is not a good development. And I doubt seriously that we have a unified coherent battle plan to deal with this yet. I know we are remobilizing. Just pay attention to the bases in the former Soviet republics for a hint when we'll move against Iran.

[Boot Hill]

You raise some interesting issues, particularly the issue of just how the new regime will deal with India. Part of the difficulty with trying to analyze a new radical Islamist government in direct control of Pakistan and its nuclear stockpile, is that these Islamists are not a monolithic block and there will be some internal differences about how best to employ that nuclear stockpile.

Let me cogitate on the issues you raise a bit and get back to you, but my initial reaction is to suggest that America is unlikely to sit idly by if it appears that al Qa'ida is taking control of the Paki nukes. I would expect a swift and massive response.

In the mean time, what do you make of the intel rumors making the rounds that Pakistan actually has had two parallel nuclear programs, one under control of Musharraf, and a second run by proxy from Saudi Arabia?

Regards,

Boot Hill

[Boot Hill]

Let me mull over your thoughts and get back to you.

--Boot

[Beck_isright]

"In the mean time, what do you make of the intel rumors making the rounds that Pakistan actually has had two parallel nuclear programs, one under control of Musharraf, and a second run by proxy from Saudi Arabia?"

I give them some credence. And I also know how to verify it; when you hear about Israeli F-15's taking out a Saudi weapons base.

[Boot Hill]

"...when you hear about Israeli F-15's taking out a Saudi weapons base."

Interesting that you would mention that. Look what the Saudi's are basing at Tabuk, only 7 minutes from Tel Aviv.
Saudis expanding air base near Israel [I wonder why]

--Boot Hill

[Beck_isright]

" Interesting that you would mention that. Look what the Saudi's are basing at Tabuk, only 7 minutes from Tel Aviv."

Just remember. The House of Saud has never renounced "the Final Solution" nor seriously sought a peace treaty with Israel.

[American in Israel]

A U.S. official in Dubai asked to inspect the package while it was in a warehouse there, but United Arab Emirates officials refused, Brigham wrote.

Interesting isn't it. Seems the UAE is involved and knew what the package held.

Think Empire, not Nations...

[Kozak]

Just remember. The House of Saud has never renounced "the Final Solution" nor seriously sought a peace treaty with Israel.

However the Saudi's also know that an attack on Israel with WMD's will result in Riyahd, and Mecca and Medina ending up as puddles of melted glass....

[Eighth Square]

Amen! It really is'nt unique, and the 'hand-wringers' have been around for every generation. It's the politicians and the media in general who have failed to enlighthten the public. Warfare is inherent in mankind and we better get used to it. While it is sensible to pursue the ultimate goal of a united, peace loving human race - it ain't gonna' happen any time soon! if ever. Meanwhile-

Don't mean to be lecturing, sorry. Read a great article in a recent issue of the economist - One Jacky Fisher, the founder of Britian's modern navy, said prior to the start of World War one - "The essence of war is violence; moderation in war is imbecillity, you might as well talk of humanising hell!"

We should have learned that in Vietnam.

[Boot Hill]

Beck,

I've thought about your scenario over the weekend and read up on additional developments in the region. My conclusion is that what you suggest is too "optimistic".

Musharraf won't make it to 2006, he will be dead this year. This won't put the nukes "on the market", it will put them immediately in the hands of al Qa'ida, whose is, after all, the force orchestrating the overthrow of Musharraf. Al Qa'ida won't care if India goes to war with Pakistan, they will have already absconded with Pakistan's nukes.

However, I couldn't agree more when you say, "We don't have enough troops to fight Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Pakistan at the same time."

So what trick does Bush have up his sleeve to counter this problem? The man's a world class poker player so it will be interesting to see how he handles this. But the threat of this war going nuclear sometime within a year is nearing 100%.

--Boot Hill

[westerfield]

Federal prosecutors are appealing a ruling by a Denver federal magistrate that would set Karni free on $75,000 bond raised by supporters. Prosecutors argue that Karni, an Israeli citizen, should be jailed because he could flee to South Africa or Israel and avoid extradition to the United States.

What the hell is wrong with this federal judge that he would even consider letting this guy out on bail? Unbelievable.