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To: zook
No, not next week, it will be brutal, and believe me I have nothing but support for Bush's approach. The truth is the no one understands the extent of "off-shoring" and how much of that is really behind "productivity" increases. We have never seen this sort of thing on this scale before so it is quite hard to predict. I know, I am involved with it.

It may work out by second quarter, it may not. There are a lot of wild cards.

Believe me, missing that number by so wide a mark set everyone back to the drawing boards. Just watch the futures and the early market tomorrow night and early Monday morning. The US markets are in for one hell of a ride. I hope OPEC stays with the dollar because there will be real pressure to switch next week.

The lastest run ups have not been speculators but money that had gotten burned before and were waiting out the recession. If this chases them out for another year the recovery could be nipped in the bud.

I hope that there are some really good earning reports in the next two week as that would really help.

The Dow will go below 10,000 next week and could well go down more than 10%. I hope I am wrong but that is how it looks to me. THe NASDaq will certainly go below 2000 and could go down more than ten percent as well. As I said look for the Euro and $130.00. THe slide might might me to steep to allow the Japanese to prop up the Yen, whick could hit $106.00. These are terrible numbers for a "recovery" and could kill it for a couple of years.

This is serious stuff and could turn everything upside down for the economy and for Bush. And, believe me I am not pushing any "plan" that the democrats have because they do not have one. But it would be foolish not to see some real damage here. Of course the worst that could happen would be to raise taxes - that would start a depression.

43 posted on 01/10/2004 6:44:13 AM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: CasearianDaoist
This is serious stuff and could turn everything upside down for the economy and for Bush.

You're overwrought. Bush is already planning another round of tax cuts, and this mixed news (several companies announced results that were HIGHER than expected) would give him an impetus to announce them.

74 posted on 01/10/2004 11:31:30 AM PST by sinkspur (Adopt a shelter dog or cat! You'll save one life, and maybe two!)
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To: CasearianDaoist
The sell-off threatened to push stocks into negative territory for the first full week of the new year. The Dow ended just 0.5 percent higher, the S&P 500 was up a scant 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq was ahead 4.0 percent.

This is a pretty pessimistic take on an up week. If this "scant" increase continues, after one year the Dow will be up 30%, S&P 500 up 86%, the Nasdaq 669%. It must be an election year for an increase to be spun into a negative.

Never follow investment advice on FR. Conservatives are too pessimistic for their own good.

98 posted on 01/10/2004 12:10:39 PM PST by Reeses
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To: CasearianDaoist
What you predicted: The Dow will go below 10,000 next week and could well go down more than 10%. I hope I am wrong but that is how it looks to me. THe NASDaq will certainly go below 2000 and could go down more than ten percent as well.

What really happened: The Dow Jones industrial average rose 46.66 points, or 0.4%, to close at 10,600.51, up 1.4% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 31.38 points, or 1.5%, to close at 2,140.46, its highest level since July 2001. The Nasdaq gained 2.6% for the week. And the S&P 500 index rose 7.78 points, or 0.7%, to 1,139.83, its highest close since April 2002. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% for the week. The Dow and the S&P 500 have posted eight straight weeks of gains; the Nasdaq six.

Statistically, being a pessimist is bad strategy. You may be sometimes right but will mostly be wrong.

117 posted on 01/16/2004 10:30:57 PM PST by Reeses
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