http://www.realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html#1_9_03_0823 TAKING A SECOND LOOK: Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse suggest in today's NY Times that a number of Iowa Democrats are reevaluting their initial support of Howard Dean:
Still, in dozens of conversations with voters across central Iowa over the past three days, it became clear that some Democrats are taking a second look at the doctor from Vermont whose candidacy has transformed the Democratic presidential contest.
Such qualms could benefit Senator John Edwards of North Carolina and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. Both were often mentioned by voters as strong alternatives to Dr. Dean.
It looks like there might be the tiniest bit of support for this theory in one of the two new polls released out of Iowa yesterday. SurveyUSA has Kerry and Edwards improving a couple of ticks from their previous position and Dean sliding just a bit, but it's really hard to say.
If there is in fact a reevaluation of Dean taking place among voters it will certainly be helped along by two other items in the news this morning. The first is this story, which reports that while appearing on a Canadian television show in 2000 discussing politics, Dean described the Iowa caucuses as a "waste of time" and "dominated by the special interests." It will be interesting to see Mr. "I Just Tell It Like It Is" do damage control on this one, and it may cause a few more defections to Kerry or Edwards.
The other story of note is the new AP-Ipsos poll out this morning with the following head-to-head numbers:
Bush 54%, Dean 39%
Bush 54%, Kerry 37%
Bush 56%, Gephardt 35%
Bush 49%, Clark 42%
It's the second poll this week showing Dean getting absolutely shellacked by the President in a head-to-head match up. Clark's strength against Bush relative to the rest of the field should keep the "reevaluation process" of Dean in motion around the country.
But it also presents a special dilemma for some Iowans. If you're a Clark supporter in Iowa (the KCCI poll released yesterday showed 3% support for Clark though it could be more than that) or if you're a pragmatic undecided who is concerned first and foremost with beating George W. Bush in November and it's looking more and more like Clark might be your party's best bet, who do you cast your vote for on January 19?
I suspect the answer is you throw your lot in with Gephardt and try to knock Dean off in Iowa and hope that leads to a really strong showing for Clark in New Hampshire eight days later.
Clark is surging in NH and everywhere else. He will be the nominee.
But does this mean that Bush is going to take any delegates to the Democrat National Convention?
Could happen, you know. If ya can't lick 'em, join 'em.
George W. Bush, nominated as candidate for President on the Democrat ticket. In the voting booth, vote for Bush the Republican, or Bush the Democrat.
Well, what the heck? As long as we are talking about parallel universes....