Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Wright is right!
No, you miss the point.

No, I didn't miss the point. I just misinterpreted what you said. You are correct that the jackpot will eventually be won. I didn't realize you were referring to multiple drawings.

However, even over multiple drawings, the chance someone will win is actually still less than 100%. The probability gets smaller and smaller as more drawings occur (and a progressively larger number of tickets are purchased each time). And, it eventually gets so close to 100% that it is effectively certain.

I'd have to go back to my statistics textbook to find the actual name of the distribution that describes the phenomena.

186 posted on 01/09/2004 12:14:57 PM PST by justlurking
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 184 | View Replies ]


To: Wright is right!
The probability gets smaller and smaller as more drawings occur....

A correction: the probability (of a winner) gets larger and larger. I inadvertantly inverted my thinking to the chance that someone will not win (that does indeed get smaller and smaller).

I think the correct description of the phenomena is the binomial distribution. It gets more difficult to compute when you have multiple drawings (with different probabilities for each single drawing), but the concept is the same.

187 posted on 01/09/2004 12:56:42 PM PST by justlurking
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 186 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson