You sound like a radio advertising salesman. In real life you use voter history, not polls to suggest how voters will vote in the future. It is very much an accepted statistic in elections to compare how different candidates have done in the same districts and then factor for things that are not equal. In her case, she did better than Bush in her own congressional district AFTER becoming this terrible lightening rod you claim she is. In that case, the adjustments work in her favor and it's more than likely she'll help, not hurt himYou are making the mistake of looking at only one heavilly Republican district.
Sorry to say, but she would mobalize every Dem and Dem$ in the state.
She will run, but not now. It is not her time.