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To: Taliesan
Nice phrase " Tin Foil Fraternity". Kinda sums it up. I had some hopes for jamaskin based upon his interest in the subject. Unfortunately, I have found once again he is more interested in the agenda, than he is the subject.
28 posted on 01/16/2004 12:02:05 PM PST by tcuoohjohn (Follow The Money)
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To: tcuoohjohn
Actually, if you'll watch carefully, here is the actual pathological process:

They are unable to jettison the mental residue from pondering Possibility 1 before they turn their minds to Possibility 2. That means the possiblities have a CUMULATIVE EFFECT in their minds, so that a subjective PROBABILITY THRESHOLD is soon reached, and they interpret a dozen possibles (improbabilities) as a cumulative probability.

They can't seem to grasp that most observations are independent of each other, i.e. one possibility doesn't make the second possiblity any more likely.

Zero times 12 equals zero, not 12.

29 posted on 01/16/2004 12:11:09 PM PST by Taliesan
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