Now The Hard Part Begins For The Governor (The Governator's Ready To Take On Sacramento's Dinosaurs)

Los Angeles Times ^ | 01/07/04 | Michael Finnegan

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For the short term, the question is whether Schwarzenegger can draw enough power from his status as a mega-celebrity to overcome lawmakers' resistance to his budget and recover from any dip in his popularity.

For the long term, Schwarzenegger's political interests dictate a fast resolution to the budget crisis to ease his path to reelection in 2006, should he seek a second term.

"It's kind of like Civil War surgery: If you're going to take someone's leg off, then do it quickly," said Rod Kiewiet, a Caltech political science professor.

History suggests that approach can succeed. Gov. Ronald Reagan approved a major tax hike in his first year in office, leaving the unpopular move well behind him by the time he was reelected in 1970. Gov. Pete Wilson's job-approval rating sank to 28% after he raised taxes and slashed programs during a deep recession early in his first term. Yet Wilson, now a Schwarzenegger mentor, went on to win reelection two years later in a romp.

Schwarzenegger's first political task is to navigate among foes in the Legislature. Last month, it was largely his force of personality that prodded lawmakers into putting his budget measures on the March 2 ballot. His force of personality will again be a crucial tool for the governor in promoting his overall budget.

"The guy has a commanding presence," Republican strategist Arnold Steinberg said. "He comes across as a leader. These characteristics are enormously helpful in trying to sell bad news

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Arnold figures staunch the bleeding, take the political heat early and then be in a position to take credit for the inevitable economic recovery. The difference between him and Gray Davis is he's not afraid to tackle a daunting challenge head-on. Its going to be interesting to watch if the Governator can pull it off by 2006.