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To: Jeff Head
Jeff, just as a caution---and I worked on Soviet weapons threats as my secondary area for about 15 years, mainly Soviet naval developments---what often appears as "highly capable" or "advanced technology" on the surface has almost universally proven to be far less capable once we found out the "innards" of these systems.

The best example was the "Alpha" submarine---a titanium-hulled, super-fast attack sub supposedly capable of 45 kn. One small problem: we later learned that it could ONLY attain this speed for VERY short bursts. The sub, like a drag racer, had to be towed to its patrol lanes. It could not sustain its speed for any length of time, and it was known in the Navy as a "grenade": pull the pin and watch it blow up.

Or consider the MiG-25 "Foxbat," once thought to be a terrifying B-1 killer because of its high speeds. Yet we learned that it was still using vacuum-tube technology; had a terrible turn radius; and could go straight like a bat out of hell . . . but do little else well.

I'm not saying that the Russkies and Chinese can't build quality stuff. I am saying that it is as great a danger to overestimate an enemy's capabilities as it is to underestimate them.

20 posted on 01/06/2004 9:57:05 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrack of news.)
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To: LS; cyn; Jeff Head
Overestimating an enemy LS means that you will either not do something necessary out of fear,but usually it means that you will take such major precautions that when war finally erupts you will have an enormous edge (an example of this is the US using weaponry meant to defeat the ex-Soviet Union against Iraq in the Gulf war).

However Underestimating an enemy will get you killed! Simple! Going into a fight thinking that "it is just the Chinese" will only lead to your family receiving a letter of condolence. It is better to go to war expecting a strong enemy (and prepared for one) and finding a 60 pound weakling, than to go in with hollers and backslaps, making jests about the opposing force, only to get your collective a$$e$ handed back to you.

Before WW2 the Japanese were mocked and ridiculed as ineffective half-witted sots who could not even hold a rifle correctly (actually the Japanese air wing was allegedly not able to 'fly straight' because of the 'way their eyes were shaped).

That was until Pearl Harbor made people realize that the so called 'Japs' had some teeth.

China is biding is time. IS it the threat it insinuates it is (although China actually tries to downplay its capabilities .....)? Maybe it is, and maybe it is not. Remember the Chinese adage that the essence of warfare is deception. However one thing that is for sure is we should not point fingers and laugh in jest lest one day, a decade or less from now, we learn of the inept ludicrous Chinese sinking one of our ships.

Cyn, you posted a comment about the Chinese not having any combat experience since 'they were crushed by the Japanese in the late 1800s.' True, quite true indeed. Just remember that when dealing with China one needs to look at the macro picture. While we have only been a superpower for less than a century the Chinese have more or less been a powerhouse, on and off, for a long long time. And they want to be numero uno once more.

22 posted on 01/06/2004 10:36:32 AM PST by spetznaz (Nuclear missiles: The ultimate Phallic symbol.)
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To: LS
Understood...and that is probably a big part of the reason that the Chinese are pushing for developing their own systems...using the Russian stuff to bridge the gap.

But, by all accounts, the SU-27 and the Sovremenny vessels are very capable platforms and the Sunburn and Yahkont missiles are giving our people some headaches.

The Chinese have to address our CBGs in order to be able to project any appreciable power into the China Sea and beyond and make it stick. It is a nut no one has been able to crack and they are certainly not there yet. In fact, short of some very significant breakthrough similar to what I talk about in Dragon's Fury with the supercavitating weapons, they are not going to do it trying to match us stroke for stroke with carriers and missiles IMHO. (Unless they can bankrupt us first). That plays to our strengths. They will have to come up with some mixture of asymetrical means and conventional means and you can bet they are working on it and we need to be prudently prepared and maintain our advantage.

28 posted on 01/06/2004 11:34:09 AM PST by Jeff Head
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