The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | January 6, 2004 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

LOL! Well, you are right and there's nothing left to say about it. Thanks for the advise.

[Poohbah]

LOL! Well, you are right and there's nothing left to say about it. Thanks for the advise.

Given the topic of discussion in your post, the last word is unintentionally funny.

[SauronOfMordor]

If they actually start building carriers, wouldn't this suggest that they believe they can neutralize our stealth technology?

Heck, the Serbs had a way around our stealth technology. The way regular radar works is by emitting radio waves, and seeing if any are reflected back by a flying object. The way stealth works is by having the plane absorb most of the radar waves, and reflecting the rest in directions other than back to the radar receiver.

The problem with stealth is that you are not truly invisible, just "radar black". If you get BETWEEN a radio transmitter and a sophisticated receiver, you cast a shadow (this is why the US spent some time at the beginning of Iraq II to take out cell towers and other microwave radio sources). To determine where you are, the other side needs to have sophisticated electronics and good computers that can handle signal processing tasks. The Chinese are investing heavily in electronics technology.

If we belatedly discover the Chinese have developed a good way to put any stealth aircraft between a bright microwave source and sophisticated receivers, then we will have a problem.

[arm958]

I remember being told for years that the USSR was every bit as powerful as the US was by the CIA. It came to pass, however, that the USSR was a basketcase.

I don't think this means anything as far as China is concerned. China has lots of cash. China is a major exporter of increasingly high-tech consumer and commercial goods. China and the former USSR cannot be compared.

[ModelBreaker]

I assume the Serbs managed to see the shadow when the F117 was flying very low??

[ModelBreaker]

I assume the Serbs managed to see the radar shadows only when the F117 was flying very low?? I guess you could have a very high plane with a transmitter flying over the CBG. It would be tough to get a strong enough signal from a satellite.

[Jeff Head]

Glad it could brighten your day a bit there Poo.

[hosepipe]

Wonder how much secret technology Clinton sold them already.. not to speak of their ideolical cronies in the US state dept.. and elsewhere...

Hope the boatworks are making new attack subs.. in that case the Chinese navy are mere targets...

[Poohbah]

If we belatedly discover the Chinese have developed a good way to put any stealth aircraft between a bright microwave source and sophisticated receivers, then we will have a problem.

Excessively simple solution: lob an AGM-88 at the microwave source.

[Jeff Head]

Hope the boatworks are making new attack subs

There's good news there. The Virginia class is under construction. The Virginia was christined in August of last year and will be commissioned in July of this year. The 2nd boat, the Texas, is slated for 2005 and the 3rd, the Hawaii, for 2006.

At that point we will be producing two of them per year. We plan to build thirty of them and they will replace the older LA class boats as they are decomissioned until we are left with the Seawolfs and the Virginias.

Here's a pic ot the Virginia prior to christening:

[hosepipe]

Bump...

[1stFreedom]

>>the SU-27 and the Sovremenny vessels are very capable platforms and

SU-27 is a capable fighter but without excellent pilots it's a moot point. Our own pilots suffered at the hands of MIGs in Vietnam untill we implemented better training. Once we did that our pilots fared far better.

In terms of the SU-27 vs F14, I don't think there is any issue. The F-14 will take it out before the SU-27 can utilize any advantages in manuverablity. (The F14 uses the Phoneix missile which has a range of over 100 miles. The SU-27 has no equavalent.) People underestimate the maneuverability of the F14. The fact that it's wings remain spread in low speed flight gives it alot more manuverability then the traditional delta wing.

>>Sunburn

The SeaRam will destroy a SunBurn. Think of it as sun block lotion for a naval vessel! (SEA Ram will replace Phalanx on Navy ships. It features dual mode Radar/Optical tracking, and it's missiles fly at speeds of over mach 2.)

The Chinese are simply trying to catch up to us. The problem is that while their technology is good, it isn't enough to stay up with us. What we are trying to field in the next few years will offset any advantages they have now or in the future.

While we do have much in development at the moment, if we went to war you'd see the R&D cycle be reduced. Right now there isn't an urgent need for a mach 6 anti-ship missile. But if we went to war with China I think you'd see a production line rolling off such missles in less than a few months.

With limited budgets, a lack of urgency, and more time than anything else, R&D is painfully slow. If things got urgent, you'd see money flow and R&D cycles shorten. (It's often said that tasks take as much time as is alloted to them. )

What they face in the future are:

* Lasers. US Navy is rather close to fielding laser based weapons.

* Super-cavitation CIWS: Originally designed to take out mines, this system can be modified to take out supercavitation torpedoes.

* Stealth aircraft: Though not invisible, reaction time is severely reduced for ship defense. Joint Strike Fighter and F-22, paired with EW measures, are a big problem for naval vessles. Though they can be seen with powerful ship-based radar, delivering a missile to the target is a much more difficult proposition.


* Aegis SM3 anti-missle protection. This is close to implemetation. Very strong anti-missile platform.

* Rods from God: Tungsten rods dropped from space. The impact is so severe that no warhead is required. If we can steer these things, a "stealth" rod from God will sink any Chinese vessel -- or ANY other vessel for that matter.

* Hypersonic missiles: Mack 6+ missiles with ranges of 400 miles. We'll be sinking their ships before they can even come close. (Probably fielded around 2012)

* Hypersonic intercontinental missiles: Mach 12+ missles used to deliver conventional/nuclear warheads. (Fielded 2020)

* Lasers Again. Airborne anti-missile lasers. This system while in R&D, could quickly be put into production.

[1stFreedom]

>>If we belatedly discover the Chinese have developed a good way to put any stealth aircraft between a bright microwave source and sophisticated receivers, then we will have a problem.

Nah. ECM will take care of that. Sending false signals (ECM), decoy drones, and taking out tranmission towers will negate any such defence against stealth. Finally, EMP weapons will help to eliminate the threat.

>>Heck, the Serbs had a way around our stealth technology.

Well, yes and no. From what I understand, they knew the takeoff patterns of the F117s. The F117 can be seen on radar, but usually too late. (Also, I believe that the aircraft was not hit or damaged. I believe it was a close burst and the pilot panicked. From his testimony, it sounds like as soon as he felt the explosion he bailed. Not that I blame him, but it could have been a close hit instead of a direct hit.)

If you know the path and your system can see it, then you have a good chance of shooting it down. Remember that even though Stealth aircraft have reduce signatures, they are still flown outside the reach/path of radar installations. When they bomb heavily defended cities, such as Baghdad during the Gulf War, they flew around radar patterns until the last possible seconds. This didn't give Baghdad much reaction time when faint blips appeared on thier radar screens.

(We know they aren't invisible).

Track the aircraft several times, and you'll find a frequencey which works best against it. Once you got that down, all you need is a spotter to warn you of a takeoff. Then you stand a good chance of hitting the thing.

Expecting to attack the F117 this way is much different than having many planes in the air which show up on your radar. Throw in the fact that ECM is going full blast, and I think that shooting down a stealth aircraft becomes harder under full blown war conditions.

Finally, I believe the biggest threat to stealth comes not from radar but IR based weapons. Heat signatures are hard to hide. Even aircraft skin temperatures can be used to target "stealty" aircraft.

[dr_who_2]

The nice thing about something that big is that it could block a waterway if we sunk it.

[dr_who_2]

That was until Pearl Harbor made people realize that the so called 'Japs' had some teeth.

...even though the Japanese were ill-prepared for war with the U.S. even then.

[dr_who_2]

I take it that nuclear attack subs come in handy for some or all of the vessels mentioned (along with whatever missile systems our ships have).

[Jeff Head]

Decreasing numbers of AIM-54's left in the inventory and from what I have been told, we're not building any new ones. We're going to the AMRAAM, which is a great missile...but lacks the legs of the Phoenix.

In addition, in terminal dive mode from long range, the Phoenix is not very manueverable. Great at taking out Tu-22M's or TU-16's, but not as effective against more modern fighters, especially once they are aware of them.

We need the LRAAM.

I am very familiar with the Rolling Airframe missile (RAM) system and know of its capabilities. It is not at all fool proof or 100% effective against the Sunburn or the Yahkont. Yes, it can take them down...but it will not get all of them. But, as I have said in the past...the missile threat plays to our strength...it is what we designed AEGIOS and all of the weapons systems being intergrated into it for, even though the Chinese and others continue to put efforts there to try and find vulnerability.

Aa to the rest, I agree with most of your other points. I understand that production would pick up, but much of our capability to shift peace time production over to war time production is being moved to the PRC as we speek. We'd have to build a lot of new plants from scratch. I have no doubt we would do this and that we would win in dramatic fashion...but building takes time and in war, time costs lives and ground.

The whole point of this thread is simply to document the efforts the PLAN is making in this regard...and they are not minimal or insubstantial. We need to keep our guard up and, IMHO, adopt economic policies with the PRC that does not tend to be what funds their buildup and efforts in this regard. but that's just my opinion.

[Jeff Head]

Yes, particularly the new Virginia class. See my post 131.

[Quix]

DUM TA DUM DUM

DUM TA DUM DUM

DUM TA DUM DUM DUM . . . . [DRAGNET]

a very troublesome dragonnet growing.