[Lael]

I've read that, in different wording, on this board. They think he is picking up so many votes from the middle that he can afford to lose his base

I think you are spot on, and this may mean that the race gets really interesting.

Many people misread the Republican takeover of the House in 1994.

Yes, the Contract with America helped swing some disaffected Independents, and passage of two Gun Control acts in 1994 helped with some single issue voters.

But, also in the mix was GATT and NAFTA in 1994, both BITTERLY OPPOSED by Labor and rank and file Democrats...the Demo base.

In fact, it was Demo stay-at-homes which lead to one of the lowest voter turnouts in 1994.

Can Bush afford to 'rape' his base, just like the ever Triangulating Clinton did to the Demo base???

I think Karl Rove [ who doesn't have ANY of the 4 "success" letters in his name ] is giving BAD Advice.

And, when VINCENTE Fox visits just 5 days later, it's KATIE BAR the DOOR!!!

As on an earlier thread, his base is deeply divided on Offshore Outsourcing, and his reassurances to New Dehli Government to resist state laws to stop it.

Will this further self-inflicted political wound be enough to have another "squeeker"?

[Lael]

I neglected to mention that, because of gerrymandering, only a max of about 20 House seats are really at risk in any off year election.

Without the Demo stay-at-homes, it is doubtful that the 53 Seat pickup was possible!

[oceanview]

i still say, Dean could take north carolina. big demographic shifts in that state, influx of both retirees and workers from the northeast, big job losses in the furniture and other manufacturing sectors plus tech jobs losses in the research triangle area. Put the Gore states + NC together, and Dean takes it.