A Tehran earthquake might collapse Iran’s regime
The Daily Star, Lebanon
03/01/04
The earthquake that destroyed the ancient city of Bam has focused attention on the incompetence of the Iranian authorities. Why, after all, in a country widely seen as the most earthquake-prone in the world, do these tragedies frequently recur? But such criticism must not cloud the bigger picture: A strong earthquake is likely to hit Iran’s capital, Tehran, in the near future. The implications are almost too calamitous to contemplate. Not least, it could threaten the very survival of the authorities being blamed for not doing enough to lessen the human costs of such disasters.
The political vultures were quick to descend upon the corpses of Bam. Amir Taheri, writing in the Saudi daily Arab News, claimed that much of the shoddy buildings in Bam were the result of property racketeering engendered by the 1979 Iranian revolution. According to Taheri, the turmoil that ensued after ex-Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s ouster enabled swindlers to seize large chunks of land in Bam, on which poorly constructed houses and shops were built. Taheri added that the deals were backed by fatwa-issuing clerics who in turn received a healthy slice of the profits. Yet he provided not a shred of evidence to buttress these allegations.
Arguably, David Aaronovitch, writing in The Guardian on Dec. 30, delivered the best piece of political commentary. Extolling the virtues of American masonry and the value put on human life in the US, Aaronovitch noted that the earthquake that recently hit California with almost the same intensity as the Bam quake killed only 2 people. Despite his insight, however, Aaronovitch’s closing comment, “(s)ome Iranians might think that it’s a shame there wasn’t a McDonald’s in Bam. It would have been the safest place in town,” was as facile as it was inappropriate.
The incompetence of the Iranian authorities is not, as some would imply, the result of ideology. Rather, it is symptomatic of the same kind of incompetence and sheer disrespect for human life that is visible all across the developing world, and which also, for example, was responsible for the thousands of lives lost in the Turkish earthquake of 1999. And Turkey, lest pundits forget, is ultra-secular and staunchly pro-Western. The Islamic regime in Iran does not wield a monopoly on incompetence.
None of this, of course, must detract attention from apportioning blame justly. The earthquake not only snuffed out tens of thousands of lives, it destroyed one of the features of Iranian civilization: Bam’s ancient citadel, known as the Arg, was initially built under the Sassanian Dynasty. It now lies in ruins. Defenses could have been erected to safeguard these ancient fortifications in the event of a major natural disaster. Bam had, after all, suffered three major quakes in the 20th century.
But the real challenge for Iran is far more menacing. What happened in Bam could occur on a far larger scale in Tehran. In February 2003, a seminar on construction was held in the capital, during which Mohsen Ghafouri Ashtiyani, the head of the International Seismological Research Center, which is affiliated with the Science Ministry, made a stark warning that the fault lines around Tehran were sliding and accumulating energy. He made an ominous prediction: “(T)here is a strong likelihood of an earthquake striking the Iranian capital … On the basis of the studies, the probability of a quake above seven degrees on the Richter scale in the next 10 years currently stands at 65 percent, and this is expected to increase with the passing of time.”
Another expert present at the seminar, Farid Mahdian, the head of the Tehran Earthquake Research Center, claimed that the activation of the Ray fault line, situated to the south of Tehran, would lead to the destruction of over 90 percent of this Tehran suburb. Mahdian added, alarmingly: “In case of an earthquake, this Tehran district will witness catastrophic losses in human life.”
The experts could have cited the example of Mexico City when discussing damage limitation. The city suffered an earthquake in 1985 that clamed 10,000 lives. Subsequently the city implemented some of Latin America’s toughest building codes. Interestingly, on New Year’s Day an earthquake that hit off the Mexican coast was strongly felt in Mexico City. No major destruction was reported.
Despite dire warnings of an impending disaster in Tehran, the authorities have done virtually nothing. This not only shows a breathtaking disregard for human life and property, it could also prove to be bad politics. Tehran is, after all, the undisputed political and economic center of Iran. A massive earthquake there could potentially collapse literally and symbolically the institutions of the Islamic Republic.
In his analysis, Aaronovitch got one thing eloquently right: Iran’s post-revolutionary elites are indeed, as he put it,
a “useless, incompetent semi-theocracy, which is fatalistic, complacent, unresponsive and often brutal.” But they have one thing going for them: They have a sharp sensitivity when predicting and foiling events that could potentially threaten their political survival. It is perhaps this sense of political survival that is the only hope for improving Tehran’s defenses against a massive quake.
Mahan Abedin, a London-based financial consultant and analyst of Iranian politics, wrote this commentary for THE DAILY STAR
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/03_01_04_c.aspA very funny article to show how Mullahs are dumb -- Pilot
Fast-food younger generation are shown red card
Telegraph, UK
Behzad Farsian in Teheran
03/01/2004
Iran's fast-food restaurants are said to be so nervous of the latest attack by hardline clerics on "immoral" behaviour that they are issuing football-style penalties to customers.
Girls deemed to be improperly dressed or men flirting too openly with the opposite sex may receive a "yellow card" on their table, and repeat offenders receive a "red card" and are sent off.
"This is a system I have heard about, but have yet to see it and doubt it will be good business sense," said a north Teheran fast-food restaurant owner, who wished to remain anonymous.
But clearly there is a move by some clerics against American-style restaurants and social clubs which they accuse of encouraging decadent behaviour. Some businesses have been closed.
"The reason the fast-food restaurants have been shut is purely because the flirtations between the girls and boys were getting out of hand and the authorities could not control it," said the restaurateur.
Teheran's younger generation has been attempting to enjoy a social lifestyle similar to that in the West, and this upsets Islamic fundamentalists.
Although the clampdown began before the Bam earthquake, it is a good indicator of clerical fears about "American" influences already at work in Iran. That in turn helps to explain the resistance of some to any talk of rapprochement with Washington.
Four restaurants were closed by the police last month "until further notice", some snooker and pool clubs have been ordered to close and others have limited their services only to men.
"I used to go to one of the restaurants twice a week," said Samira, a single woman aged 22, one of Iran's under-25 generation which accounts for 60 per cent of the population. "It won't stop me and my friends; we'll just find somewhere else to go."
The authorities view one of Samira's haunts, a shopping centre in a northern suburb where there are several western-style restaurants, as a meeting point for the young to flirt with each other while chewing on their burgers.
Iran's Islamic laws put strict limitations on the places and circumstances in which young people can conduct their social lives.
Restaurants must dedicate a male and female section for unmarried couples, although fast-food restaurants have ignored this since the reformist President Mohammad Khatami came to office. Under Iran's theocratic rule, women have to cover their hair and wear clothes that obscure the shape of their bodies.
But teenagers in the lively suburbs of north Teheran are seen with splashes of make-up, tight-fitting designer coats and headscarves pulled back to show off fashionable hairstyles.
Critics believe the closure of the restaurants is a calculated move by hardliners determined to show the public that the reformists have no control prior to next month's parliamentary elections.
"This is definitely a political move," said 23-year-old Amir, a regular fast-food customer. "Not only have the hardliners shown their power over the reform process, but they will also rekindle support from their voters."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/01/03/wiran103.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/01/03/ixnewstop.htmlI don't think the Mullahs can move fast enough to ensure that the homes in Iran are earthquake proof before the next big one. It is horrifying to think of what could happen. The people must begin immediately to do what they can to make their homes safe.