Oh yes, I don't think Florida will be in play much. If Dean is the nominee, he will need to pick off New Hampshire, and then think up some other sizable state to grab, or some mini states. I am not sure what state(s) those would be.
I think that here in NH the "lunatic factor" will probably weigh against Gov. Dean.
The appearance of mental stability still counts for something in politics, in New Hampshire anyway.
(Bob Smith being the exception that proves the rule.)