Posted on 01/01/2004 9:04:11 AM PST by Willie Green
For education and discussion only. Not for commercial use.
Although warnings about the crisis engulfing American manufacturing have been intensifying for months, the sector´s woes continue to be significantly underestimated – certainly by official Washington and even by many manufacturers themselves. In fact, despite the current boost in growth fueled by deficit spending, tax cuts, mortgage re-financings, and other one-time stimuli, the decline of American manufacturing is fast nearing the point of irreversibility – at least from the standpoint of restoring a critical mass of industries producing in the United States to world leadership.
The nation, in short, faces a manufacturing emergency. Unless drastic measures are taken quickly, this emergency will turn the United States into a second-class manufacturing power, greatly diminishing its own future economic prospects. Further, national security and flexibility in foreign affairs will be severely compromised. Finally, the international imbalances being created by the manufacturing crisis will likely push the world into a major dollar crisis and could cause a protracted depression.
In part, the manufacturing crisis reflects the economy´s latest cyclical downturn and the deflating of the bubble of the 1990s. Likewise, the manufacturing employment portion of the crisis stems in part from the increases in productivity in recent years. But neither of these factors sufficiently explains the root cause of manufacturing´s current troubles, which are the worst by many measures since the end of World War II, and that is the cumulative and continuing effects of two decades of misguided, ill-advised, and weak-willed U.S. trade and globalization policies.
During this period, Washington has consistently failed to open foreign consumption markets adequately to U.S. producers – despite years of promises and the fanfare that greeted each new trade agreement. In addition, the American government has failed miserably to combat predatory foreign trade practices aimed at undermining U.S. producers in their home market. Perversely, Washington has responded to these failures by encouraging U.S. manufacturers to supply their home market from low-cost third world production platforms like Mexico and China. And most U.S. multinational corporations, and indeed some of their smaller suppliers, have responded with enthusiasm.
NO TIME TO LOSE
The most serious global macroeconomic dangers stemming from the continued flight of American manufacturing overseas have to date been avoided and may be postponed still further by continued financial policy legerdemain – though the faster America´s international debts keep rising, the more difficult the challenge of correcting the imbalances. But regardless of when the crunch actually comes, the weakening of domestic manufacturing is already undermining the material foundations of American national success.
The prolonged wage slump triggered by the overseas migration of America´s best-paying jobs on average has been rippling through the U.S. economy and American society for at least two decades. The loss of these important jobs represents a shrinking of the employment base needed for a middle-class standard of living, stable families, and the local and state tax revenues necessary for a first-world level of responsibly financed public infrastructure and social services. Consequently, Americans find increasingly at risk their hard-won 20th century gains in access to quality education, health care, and retirement security (whether paid for by a solvent public sector or a sufficiently broad-based and profitable private sector).
In addition, the manufacturing crisis raises serious questions about the U.S. economy´s ability to maintain a high-tech, world-leading military without worrisome dependence on foreign products and technologies. Although it is true that defense-related imports come overwhelmingly from long-time allies or traditionally friendly countries, it is just as true that they are growing rapidly at a time when major disagreements increasingly mark the relationships between the United States and these countries.
Further, the massive loss of tax revenue – both corporate and personal – directly attributable to a disappearing industrial base will undoubtedly constrain America´s ability to sustain military operations in both peacetime and wartime at levels that U.S. policymakers have come to take for granted. Thus the country faces a future in which the ability to project power and thereby affect events and outcomes the world over will be much more limited than anytime in the last century and a quarter.
Most worrisome, the decline of American manufacturing is quickly feeding on itself and gaining unstoppable momentum. Washington´s continuing failure to secure equitable terms of trade forces more and more U.S. firms to compensate by outsourcing. These moves create powerful pressure for growing numbers of the remaining hold-out companies to follow suit.
The migration of prime contractors overseas inexorably pulls much of their supply chains with them. The export of blue-collar production work leads to the export of white-collar manufacturing-related work, as companies seek the advantages of locating researchers and designers near the factories they service. In fact, there is a continuous feed-back loop between R&D efforts and the factory floor, with the two functions, R&D and production, operating in tandem. And as is well documented, R&D and other technology work often produce a clustering effect, which draws labs and similar facilities from other industries in search of new synergies. The notion that the United States will retain high-end design functions while letting production migrate overseas is wishful thinking. Without major globalization policy changes, this vicious cycle of manufacturing flight cannot be turned into a virtuous cycle of manufacturing resurgence.
LESSONS OF THE RECENT PAST
The following action plan for saving and reviving U.S. industry incorporates recent policy lessons that Americans simply can no longer afford to ignore.
First, although America´s regulatory and tax systems have unnecessarily raised domestic business costs in many instances, the manufacturing crisis springs from far deeper roots. No regulatory, health care, or tax reform schemes that would produce acceptable economic, social, or political results can overcome the damage being done to American manufacturing by today´s globalization policy failures. Improved industrial competitiveness cannot and should not be based on gutting the basics of a just, humane, and inclusive society. Fundamentally new globalization policies are the sine qua non for saving and reviving American manufacturing.
Second, the United States will always have more control over its own actions than over the actions of other countries. Therefore, the keys to reversing American manufacturing´s decline lie neither in more market-opening trade agreements nor in efforts to micro-manage economic and social conditions overseas. Despite decades of so-called free trade agreements, too many foreign markets still remain too closed to U.S. exports. The main reason: Most of the world´s countries view trade as a zero sum game, with a piece of the American domestic market as the prize. The handful of economies wealthy enough to consume American-made goods can erect new trade barriers faster than U.S. negotiators can even identify them. The U.S. government, moreover, has too much trouble enforcing its own laws and regulations here at home to imagine that enforcing foreign laws and regulations, even those imposed by future trade agreements, will be successful.
Instead, to achieve the necessary results, the United States must focus on managing its own behavior and controlling access to its own market, unilaterally conditioning that access ona strategic analysis of its own national needs and on acceptable practices by its trade partners. In addition, the United States must rely mainly on its own power and leverage to achieve satisfactory terms of trade. As the record unmistakably shows, one-country-one-vote international organizations like the World Trade Organization too readily turn into mechanisms for undermining American sovereignty, diluting American power, and maintaining global economic free-riding.
Finally, Washington must recognize that simply promoting economic growth and higher incomes abroad will not alone cure U.S. manufacturing´s ills and rebalance America´s trade accounts. Most countries refuse to trust their economic fates to market forces or refuse to permit higher domestic growth to draw in proportionately higher volumes of imports. In short, too little commerce around the world is free enough to allow potential future growth to serve as a U.S. trade and manufacturing cure-all.
The following U.S. Business and Industry Council manufacturing blueprint emphasizes short-term emergency measures for reversing domestic manufacturing´s decline and laying the foundation for its revival. But it also includes longer-term proposals for ensuring that U.S. trade and globalization policies do not revert to the practices that have produced today´s crisis.
EMERGENCY MEASURES
1. The president must declare that the United States faces a manufacturing, R&D, and outsourcing emergency no less threatening to America´s long-term future than even the Great Depression. He must also make clear that the crisis stems mainly from the manipulation of world trading system by mercantilist countries and to the encouragement of offshoring by U.S. trade policy.
2. The president should create an Apollo Program-type task force in the federal government to oversee Washington´s response to the manufacturing crisis. Its mission should be to restore domestic U.S. manufacturing to global preeminence and to boost domestic manufacturing employment and wages. The program should involve all agencies of U.S. government.
3. Federal R&D spending should be tripled and Washington should offer matching grants to industry. Special emphasis should be placed on tasking the national labs with helping to develop commercially viable, high-tech products to be manufactured in the United States.
4. The U.S. trade deficit should be quickly and dramatically reduced by imposing a “variable trade equalization tariff” on imports from countries running a trade surplus ten percent or greater of total bilateral trade. These tariffs should be increased each year until bilateral surpluses fall below the threshold level, at which time they would be removed. Tariffs should be imposed on U.S. trading partners as soon as surpluses reach the 10 percent threshold.
The United States should offer a partial exemption for the world´s poorest countries, but only if concrete, measurable trade breaks from the other OECD countries follow suit and only if the developing country seeking the exemption demonstrates a commitment to democracy and the economic advancement of all its people. Exemptions are not intended to enrich corrupt, dictatorial elites.
In addition, exceptions would be made for energy imports and other commodities that are not found in the United States and for which no acceptable substitutes exist.
5. Companies manufacturing or assembling in the United States should be barred from treating service work performed overseas as a deductible business expense. Private companies that outsource overseas the processing of sensitive records, such as medical and financial records, must ensure that their subcontractors meet U.S. privacy standards or face stiff fines.
6.. Washington should declare a moratorium on all current and future free trade talks pending development of new national trade strategy. The United States government clearly has lost the ability to negotiate trade agreements that enrich the great majority of Americans and strengthen the domestic manufacturing base on net. U.S. leaders should not engage in trade negotiations until this ability is regained.
To develop a fundamentally new national trade strategy, the president and Congress should appoint a National Trade Strategy Commission that includes representatives of business plus civil society groups, such as labor unions and environmental groups. The business representatives on the Commission should be dominated by companies and industries that produce the great majority of their product and value in the United States. The Commission should also include representatives of the nation´s science and technology and national security communities.
7. Washington should declare a moratorium on U.S. compliance with WTO panel decisions pending dramatic reform of organization to reflect America´s position in world economy. The UN Security Council veto and the IMF/World Bank weighted voting systems are possible models of international organization structures appropriate to America´s geopolitical and economic superpower status. If appropriate reform is not completed by the end of 2005, the United States should declare its intention to withdraw from the organization as soon as legally permissible.
8. Washington should declare a moratorium on U.S. compliance with NAFTA panel decisions pending reform of NAFTA´s dispute-resolution process to reflect U.S. predominance in the North American economy. In addition, NAFTA´s rules of origin and external tariffs should be revised to offer meaningful trade preferences to goods with much higher levels of North American content.
9. The U.S. government should resolve the Foreign Sales Corporation tax dispute with the European Union and the World Trade Organization by replacing the current FSC tax incentive with a major tax break for any company, either American or foreign-owned, that performs genuine manufacturing activity in the United States. Qualification for the tax break would require detailed certification that true manufacturing is occurring in the United States.
10. The United States should expedite procedures for anti-dumping and countervailing duty suits. Threshholds for standing, actionability, and remedies should all be eased. In addition, remedies should be extended to companies up and downstream from immediately affected industries to ensure protection for suppliers and consumers, and prevent foreign economic interests from using divide and conquer tactics against domestic industries.
11. The current steel tariffs should be expanded to cover industries using significant quantities of U.S.-made steel. Further, the option of extending the tariffs beyond the original three-year deadline should be left open in order to determine conclusively that foreign steel subsidization and dumping have ceased.
12. A stiff tariff should be imposed on countries determined by the U.S. government to be manipulating their currencies for trade advantage. In light of the Treasury Department´s equivocation on the currency policies of Asian mercantilist nations, the definition of currency manipulation that now exists must be broadened. A strong dollar remains in the long-term interests of the U.S. economy, but foreign governments must not be able to distort trade flows to the advantage of their companies by giving them artificial cost advantages.
13. The defense industry must be treated by the federal government in a fundamentally different way from the commercial sector. It exists solely to serve the national interest and national security, and must be structured and managed accordingly. Therefore, a 65 percent U.S. content requirement should be imposed on all military procurement, rising to 80 percent in five years and 95 percent in ten years. This requirement should immediately cover the procurement of all goods and services for domestic military facilities and operations, and to the fullest extent possible cover foreign bases as well. Presidential waiver authority should be sharply limited, especially for countries that have records as problem traders or that demand offsets for purchases of American weapons systems.
14. Public money taken from the domestic economy by taxes or borrowing should be returned to the domestic economic economy by the procurement of American-produced goods and services. Procuring government services domestically is also necessary to ensure the continued privacy and security of the financial and health records of all Americans. Thus a 50 percent U.S.-content requirement should be imposed on all non-military federal procurement, rising to 80 percent in five years and 95 percent in ten years. Presidential waiver authority should be sharply limited. This requirement should immediately cover the procurement of all services for domestic facilities and programs.
15. The scheduled abolition of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement governing world trade in textile and apparel should be suspended indefinitely, pending a study of the effects of the MFA's abolition on domestic and third-world producers in these industries.
16. Stiff tariffs should be levied on countries that impose offset requirements on U.S. defense manufacturers.
17. The president should declare a moratorium on foreign acquisitions of U.S. defense-related companies pending completion of comprehensive study of the status of the roughly 1,500 such companies acquired since 1988 under the current policy framework and government screening system.
18. Strict, detailed country-of-origin labeling should be required on all food and agricultural imports.
19. Legal immigration into the United States should be limited to 500,000 annually. Enforcement measures to halt illegal immigration should be dramatically increased, including significant and sustained increases in the budgets of those federal agencies responsible for enforcing immigration laws.
Immigration at today´s levels – both legal and illegal – can only serve to depress wages for American workers by artificially inflating the supply of labor. Moreover, the most likely victims of such massive immigration flows are the recent arrivals themselves, who are forced to compete directly for jobs with the unending flow of newcomers arriving right after them.
The H-1B visa program for technology workers should be abolished. A new federal commission comprised both of U.S. technology worker interests and tech industry interests should conduct a study to determine labor needs in technology industries and how they should be met.
LONGER-TERM MEASURES
1. Washington must insist that any future trade agreements be strictly reciprocal and strongly enforceable by the U.S. government, unilaterally if necessary.
2. Any future U.S. trade agreements must include provisions penalizing signatories for currency manipulation. IN fact, currency manipulation can be used to defeat or offset the effects of reducing or eliminating trade barriers.
3. The president should launch a major diplomatic campaign to press other OECD countries to increase third world imports, enforceable unilaterally by tariffs on the products of any non-cooperating OECD countries. Under-importing of third-world products by the European Union and Japan in particular has greatly increased the pressure on the U.S. market to absorb third-world production. Greater burden sharing in this vital sphere is urgently needed.
Because the overriding interest of U.S. trade policy is to advance the economic interests of the great majority on the American people and the long-term security and prosperity of the United States, Americans should feel no special obligation to import goods or services from third-world, or indeed any other, countries. Such imports are especially unacceptable if they sacrifice the interests of American workers and domestic companies. But a campaign to get Europe and Japan to do more is needed for three reasons:
- to counter perceptions that U.S. protectionism is the greatest current barrier to third world economic development;
- to highlight America´s record in promoting this development; and
- to call attention to the poor importing records of the other main OECD countries.
4. The United States should focus any new trade agreements on high-income countries capable of serving as final consumers of U.S. exports. Washington´s recent focus on third world countries capable of serving only as re-export platforms has been a substantial contributor to today´s current trade deficits. In particular, the United States should seek a free trade agreement with Europe that excludes agriculture. Washington should also take stronger measures to open Japanese and Korean markets, including unilateral tariffs if necessary.
5. The president should remove responsibility for monitoring and enforcing trade agreements from the office of the U.S. Trade Representative and place it in the Department of Commerce. As the lead agency for negotiating new trade agreements, the USTR´s office has every incentive to soft-pedal the deficiencies in both the structure and functioning of these agreements. Dividing these responsibilities would eliminate a major policy-making conflict of interest.
6. Congress should enact strict foreign lobbying reform covering all federal officials, including lifetime bans on working for foreign interests for former senior Executive and Legislative branch officials.
7. The Commerce and Defense Departments should be designated as co-chairs of the inter-agency Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which reviews all proposed foreign acquisitions of U.S. defense-related companies. Exon-Florio filings must be made mandatory, and the threshold for investigation lowered. With the Treasury Department chairing this panel for its decade-and-a-half of existence, national security concerns have not been adequately addressed in CFIUS´s decisions, which generally reflect only Treasury´s desire to see surplus dollars in foreign hands repatriated effortlessly.
8. The president should commission immediate reports – written by special Commercial Action Teams composed mainly of industry representatives and some government officials – on foreign subsidies existing outside the steel industry and implement tariffs to offset them. Washington should first offer to negotiate the abolition of such subsidies, but it must insist on results that are achieved quickly, as well as completely verifiable and enforceable by the U.S. government.
9. The federal government must publish more complete and timely foreign trade and investment data. This data should include detailed information on the importing, sourcing, and employment trends of all multinational companies and in fact all companies that do business in the United States. The provision of the data to the appropriate government agencies must be made mandatory.
10. The president should launch a comprehensive review of all U.S. defense alliances to determine which remain relevant to 21st century U.S. interests. The president should explicitly state that foreign policy and defense considerations will no longer automatically trump the economic interests of the United States and the American people.
STRONG – BUT ESSENTIAL – MEDICINE
No one should assume that implementing this manufacturing revival plan will be pain-free. All economic adjustments and transitions exact costs as well as create benefits. Those necessary to improve the long-run fundamentals of American manufacturing and strengthen the foundations of the U.S. and world economies as a whole will be that much more difficult because of the national and global economic excesses that were fostered since the completion of the “Tokyo Round” of international trade talks, but especially during the 1990s.
Specifically, some temporary slowdown in U.S. and global growth rates seems unavoidable. And thanks to the power of recklessly expanded international trade and investment, pushed unceasingly by economic ideologues and short-sighted multinational companies, achieving this slowdown will require serious restrictions on trade and investment flows.
Yet the only alternatives proposed to date are policies that are already proven failures, or that are surrenders to wishful thinking. Moreover, these responses can only postpone the day of reckoning, not prevent it. And just as permitting a disease to fester usually ensures that the needed treatment will be that much stronger, more painful, and less certain to work, permitting the manufacturing crisis to fester and inflating the global economic bubble further will only increase, not decrease the economic dangers facing America and the world.
The implementation of restorative measurers cannot be left to the good sense of Washington policymakers and elected officials. As a group, they have demonstrated convincingly time and again that they do not grasp the magnitude of the problems they have created and that they are bereft of comprehensive solutions. Instead, they prefer cosmetic changes, designed to relieve political pressure and ensure reelection.
If the necessary policy reorientation is to be accomplished, the impetus must come from the remaining domestic manufacturers, their employees, their communities, and local and state governments, which are experiencing first-hand the budget crises caused in large part by globalization policies – whether the movement of plants overseas, company bankruptcies due to unfair foreign practices, high-tech and other services outsourcing, uncontrolled immigration with the resulting disproportionate consumption of social services, etc. In short, grass roots efforts must reach critical mass to force Washington to change two generations of misguided policies.
If any political leaders or economic experts know how to solve the manufacturing and trade crises without the significant trade restrictions featured in our action plan, the U.S. Business and Industry Council would welcome their ideas with open arms. But we would also be wondering what they´ve been waiting for. The time for comprehensive action to save American manufacturing has long since passed. Very soon there will be little left to save.
I was a little curious about this contention. IS there a "point of no return" for manufacturing? What are the constraining criteria? At what point would American manufacturing slip below that threshold, and what would be the consequences?
Well-reasoned responses are welcome.
This sucks really bad.
Things still have a long way to go for us in arguing for some rationalization to "free trade", but you know you are winning the argument when the only free trader left here wants us to emulate Madonna.
I myself believe in free-trade, but fair-trade, which is not in any way being managed fairly by the us gov. So much senseless pain is being generated. It could be managed so much better (I implicate repubs & dems).
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A few oil shieks buying sports cars won't get you anywhere. To have a strong market it is necessary to have a population with approximately the same median income as we have had here.
Thanks for your intelligent and well-meaning inquiry.
According to the CIA's "Factbook," manufacturing as a percentage of GDP is dramatically higher than the USA's in a number of countries.
Ireland 48%, Austria 33%, Germany, Japan, Spain 31%, Sweden 29%, Australia, Canada, France 26%, India 25%, Belgium 24%, USA 18%, Hong Kong 13.5%.
Must be that all those other countries are composed largely of stupid, fat, lazy, buggy-whip makers, eh?
1. Interesting that you sidestepped the underlined question above. If you checked the data, you would find that the US is actually retaining manufacturing jobs at a much higher rate than many of the top ten offshore outsourcing destination countries.
2. Interesting that with the exception of Ireland, the largely deregulated tiger of Europe, the countries that you listed have economies and overall employment rates in far worse shape than ours. What inferences should we draw from this? Perhaps France is stealthily outflanking US business by ensuring that its workers are virtually impossible to fire, strike frequently and receive six weeks of vacation?
3. Interesting that you assume that buggy whip makers are lazy. Laziness is not the issue. The point there is simply that certain professions are rendered obsolete by technology. As manufacturing becomes more automated, more production is achieved with fewer workers.
I think that we can all agree that it would be a bad thing from both an economic and a national security perspective to lose manufacturing capacity and capabilities. However, it seems that you are instead defending "full employment" in sectors where it is no longer economically justified.
In reading more than a few manufacturing threads here, it seems those that argue most stridently for the status quo free trade crap just aren't likeable people. In addition to knowing very little about the subject, they come across as selfish and short-sighted. In short the very worst stereotypes of Americans.
I have a couple degrees in engineering and work in manufacturing - competing against the Chinese and others everyday. Manufacturing is unique in its ability to create wealth by taking raw materials and making something of tangible value. Unique also are manufacturing's requirements of capital and knowledge.
I see it as near the tipping point when (as now) lenders won't approve loans to manufacturing businesses simply on the basis of their being in manufacturing, not on balance sheets and market planning. Likewise, I was surprised when on a recent recruiting mission for a local college the high school seniors I met where really skeptical about long careers in engineering. I can't fault them.
What does the loss of manufacturing mean to this country? I'll give you a story; One hundred years ago a couple of bicycle makers from Dayton stood on a beach on North Carolina and and changed the world. Does it matter that they made bicycles and where from Dayton? Of course not, but they had developed a skill set from their experience in manufacturing for technical problems. I see the miracle often of something moving from a concept in a human mind to a useful product.
We'll have to get used to a world were this just doesn't happen here anymore.
Certainly, but the numbers of companies that are having problems in my area are legion. In my community alone there are about 10 major employers (manufacturers) who have closed, or will soon close. They all tell the same story.
No, you'll have to get used to the fact that more and more and more people around the world are going to be living in better run countries with democracy and the ability to learn and earn and turn their economies into viable formats to compete around the world.
Sorry if that fact frightens you and all the other "let's build a wall around the country" protectionists that see Wal-Mart as the doom of mankind.
Oliver Stone sounds more sane in comparison.
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