Posted on 12/27/2003 8:45:01 AM PST by DeaconBenjamin
Indian policymakers have no love for him but cannot see who else could lead rival Pakistan
NEW DELHI - The latest attempt on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's life has reinforced feelings in India that Islamabad without the general would throw a question mark over the region's future.
General Musharraf escaped unhurt on Thursday when suicide bombers driving cars packed with explosives rammed the Pakistani leader's motorcade at a petrol station 2km from his residence in Rawalpindi.
Indian analysts said yesterday that while Indian policymakers still have little love for Pakistan's President, they are unsure about who else could lead Pakistan.
A headline in The Times of India yesterday read: 'Musharraf is crucial for India'.
'The attacks have suddenly confronted the Indian government with the possibility of uncertainty and chaos in Pakistan,' the newspaper said.
Since Gen Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999, New Delhi has rarely passed up an opportunity to criticise him as undemocratic and demand that he take more action against pro-Pakistani Islamic rebels fighting Indian rule in Kashmir.
But there is also acknowledgement that his continuity as Pakistan's President is crucial.
'If he suddenly disappeared, it would affect the international campaign against terror, the stability of Afghanistan and disrupt the very, very slow process of normalisation that India and Pakistan have started,' said Mr J.N. Dixit, a former foreign secretary and ambassador to Islamabad.
'Succession would probably come from the armed forces, but who knows who would come to power and what the reaction of the Islamic parties would be?' he said.
Islamic hardliners have been critical of Mr Musharraf and his Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali on a score of moves seen as conciliatory towards New Delhi or Washington, which includes the initiation of a Nov 26 truce on the Kashmir border.
India and Pakistan in recent months have also resumed transport links and full diplomatic ties which were severed during a military stand-off between the nuclear-armed neighbours triggered by a December 2001 attack on the Indian Parliament.
India condemned Thursday's bid on Gen Musharraf's life, as it did after a similar attack aimed at the Pakistani ruler on Dec 14.
'Frankly, it is not desirable for India right now to have any unexpected developments,' said Commodore C. Uday Bhaskar, deputy director of the government-funded Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.
'The implications for India are the positive tenor in India-Pakistan relations. If there is any unexpected change it would lead to a lot of turbulence in getting this back on track,' he said.
Thursday's attack has also raised concern in New Delhi for the safety of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and other South Asian leaders due in Pakistan in less than two weeks for a summit.
Mr Vajpayee is due to make his first visit to Pakistan in five years when he attends the Jan 4-6 Islamabad summit of seven leaders.
It is seen as a key opportunity for India and Pakistan to consolidate moves to improve relations.
Islamabad has ruled out calling off the summit.
Gut feeling or ...? Odd that there have been two attempts on his life during this current Orange alert.
History marks the many times which saw Islams irrational demands and unrealistic expectations undo decades of Colonial framework and send entire nations in slaughter fests and chaos.
Iraq today demonstrates this aspect most clearly....within days of being freed from Saddam..the unrealistic expectations saw jubulent citizen turn on their deliverers with crazed passion for chaos.
Iraq is a seething qaldron of revenge mentality and selfish interaction.
Pakistan and India would explode into this on a scale which beggers imagination if someone like Musarref or Indias PM were murdered.
Violence and chaos swirl about Islam like vultures,
its unlikley they will be able to transition to our western view of life...not until they themselves have finally embraced the reality of who and what they are.
Well as you may recall Al Qaida had the foresight to eliminate Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massood two days prior to 9-11 to deny us an ally in what they new would be swift retaliation for that attack. It only stands to reason that with two attempts on Musharraf's life in the past 11 days, they are reasonably sure that their plans in America will succeed, and they wish to deny us our ally in Pakistan, where OBL and Al Zawahari are likely hiding.
A couple of notes:
The camera bomb that killed Massood was wielded by two Al Qaida Tunisian's posing as reporters. The authorities are looking for several Tunisian men that were to board flights from France tha were cancelled.
The most recent attempt on Musharraf used two white Suzuki minivans the same type used in a failed Al Qaida attempt last year (the remote detonator failed)
Why is that?
If Musharraf is killed I expect Delta force will be sent in to seize their Nukes before Al Qaida can get to them.
Hey, but from the point of view of an I.B.M.er, facing OUTSOURCING in the coming year, it could get interesting!!
Check out the misc.invest.stocks newsgroup to find the "investor/unemployed outsourcee" actually urging us to PRAY for a Nuclear Exchange between India and Pakistan.
I admit it sounds almost obscene, but some are thinking along those lines!!
5.56mm
You mean, when he goes, don't you?
Bush, the Elder, is getting old and might not be able to handle the stress. He was Ambassador to China and Head of the CIA before he became President, so he has the necessary diplomatic skills
Oh geez! With headlines like that in a major Indian daily, it's as if the Indians actually WANT him dead!
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