Hussein capture, Gadhafi move are `geopolitically significant'

Jerusalem -- It has been a great week for the United States and an extraordinary time to be in Israel. The amazing capture of the Butcher of Baghdad in a rat-hole near Tikrit was followed quickly by the surprise pronouncement of Libya's terrorist leader, Moammar Gadhafi, exposing his secret and well-developed weapons of mass destruction program and promising to dismantle it.
While some have tried to downplay the importance of Saddam Hussein's capture and have misjudged the lessons learned from Gadhafi's sudden WMD surrender, both are geopolitically significant.

These events are already sending shock waves worldwide. Their effect is especially evident here in Israel, where some argue that by reinforcing the American and Israeli strategic position regionally, they may help resuscitate the moribund peace process. The terrorize-and-wait strategy of the increasingly isolated Yasser Arafat is crumbling.

Ariel Sharon's offer of some concessions last week along with the threat of unilateral disengagement -- and Mondays surprise visit to Jerusalem by the Egyptian foreign minister attempting to jump-start the peace talks -- demonstrate the changing strategic equation.

Of course, many cynical Iraq war critics, despite months of asking ''wheres Hussein?'' immediately began looking for the dark cloud behind his captures silver lining. First they questioned his role in leading the Iraqi insurgency and then disingenuously switched the subject to an almost farcical campaign for an international tribunal -- versus an American or Iraqi one -- to try the tyrant.

Some claim (almost hopefully) that his capture won't change things on the ground in Iraq because the insurgents are not Hussein loyalists but part of a nationalist wave fighting foreign occupation. While that may be true of some, within a week, attacks on Americans dropped dramatically to pre-Ramadan (the recently ended Muslim holy month) levels.

Information gleaned from the raid on Hussein's safe house has resulted in the arrests of hundreds of insurgents and several key guerrilla cell organizers, including a major general. And successful U.S. counter-insurgency raids prompted by that intelligence continue throughout the Sunni Triangle and as far afield as the border with Syria.

While this may be only a temporary lull in the fighting (Christmas revenge attacks are expected), Hussein's capture has clearly had a tremendous psychological effect within Iraq as tens of thousands cheered their former leader's humiliating surrender, and fear of his return has been replaced by an increased willingness to ''rat-out'' more of his henchmen. Many see the event as another major tipping-point in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Hussein's trial -- preferably run by Iraqis with American and some international assistance -- should focus on his war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide in excruciating detail. It should not -- in typical international tribunal form, a' la Slobodan Milosevic -- be allowed to become a public-relations circus for the mass murderer. If conducted properly, Hussein's trial can only further legitimize the war on humanitarian grounds and continue to isolate the insurgents.

More important, his dramatic capture clearly has had a great effect outside Iraq. There is suddenly a new willingness among European war opponents to acquiesce to U.S. requests and forgive pre-war Iraqi debt. And though the French and their misguided allies, in a feeble attempt to justify their self-interested pacifism, claim that the Libya WMD coup is a victory of diplomacy over war, strategic experts here in the region dismiss that as nonsense.

Gadhafi reportedly began negotiating in earnest in March as coalition forces swept into Baghdad. He closed the deal just after Hussein was captured. This was no coincidence. A keen observer of war and politics, Gadhafi sees no U.S. quagmire in Iraq. A shrewd survivor, he knows that the balance of power has shifted decisively in America's favor.

While we should press Gadhafi even harder, coercive diplomacy using the Iraq war's demonstration effect was probably the key to Gadhafi's sudden change of heart. The remaining WMD ''axis of evil'' -- North Korea and Iran -- are now under increasing pressure to follow suit.

Paul Crespo is a former Marine Corps officer and military attach. He is an editorial contributor for The Miami Herald and an adjunct faculty member of politics at the University of Miami. He is also Senior Fellow of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.

Psychological effect

First humiliation, followed by denial, then fear, followed by denial, then resignation, followed by realignment of power, then capitulation, followed by peace.

Great article. It's almost self-evident that Sadaam's capture and Libya's dramatic turn-about are hugh and series.

It's interesting that Gadhafi was driven to negotiate because of fear of Al Queda efforts in Libya to topple him as much as he feared the USA. In much the same way, we see the Saudi's fearing Al Queda as they feared Sadaam. Even within the heart of the Arab world there is an overriding fear of terrorism and terrorists.

To me, the image of Sadaam in a coffin-shaped spider hole is an image of where Al Queda will end up, digging their own grave, with fewer and fewer sponsors--and no real friends.

First humiliation, followed by denial, then fear, followed by denial, then resignation, followed by realignment of power, then capitulation, followed by peace.

Succinct. Perfect. But what else could it be, since you are wayoverontheright. ;>)

Regards.

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