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Al-Qaeda is under a little pressure now. Behind already in the first quarter, they have to throw in their reserves, and try to overcome the lead that the US has built up in this game.

But their bench is rather shallow, and made the more so by the recent elimination of one of their staunch team players, who was not merely sidelined, but expelled from the game. And the fan base does not seem to be as motivated, either.

More and more, al-Qaeda is playing defense, and the team that settles into a purely defensive posture is marked for eventual failure. Sure, they may pull off a few impressive, even brilliant, plays, but they have largely lost the initiative. They have made the mistake of making too big a strike early in the game, and essentially they have wasted that volley only to rally the US into a state of readiness they were not prepared to counter.