If they hadn't fired on the fort in Charleston harbor then the south may have succeeded. There was no support in Congress or in the population as a whole for using force to keep the south from leaving. But all that changed when the Davis regime resorted to war to gain their point. Since the regime chose war then as near as I can tell your whole problem is that your side lose. Maybe they should have tried harder?
No, my whole problem is that Lincoln refused to acknowledge the right of self government, yet waged a war in its name. His victory was the culmination of the consolidation of power in Washington, D.C. It is what made possible the monstrosity I believe most of us on FR oppose. FDR was in that sense his bastard child, who was able to sign and enforce legislation that commited unimaginable violence to the Constitution, and for the worse shaped the nature of the federal government and its relation to the States.