Weather cuts into US chain store sales - Redbook

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | December 23, 2003

[Starwind]

Weather cuts into US chain store sales - Redbook Tuesday December 23, 8:56 am ET

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Potential shoppers ducked the snow and rain by staying home as U.S. chain store sales growth slowed for the second week in a row, Redbook said in its weekly report on Tuesday.

The pace of sales at major retailers slowed to 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis for the week ended Dec. 20, after rising 3.0 percent in the preceding week, the report said. Sales at chain stores were down 1.2 percent so far in December compared with November.

Snow and rain, especially in the Northeast kept holiday shoppers at home, watching the capture of Saddam Hussein, the report said. Also, gift card purchases may have shifted sales to the period following the traditional holiday shopping season.

Some retailers reported concern of a drop in customer traffic due to the increased security situation in the United States.

The Redbook Average report is compiled from a sample of same-store sales at general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales measure revenue at stores open at least one year.

[Starwind]

Holiday stragglers lift US chain store sales-rpt
Tuesday December 23, 7:45 am ET

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Last minute gift shopping lifted U.S. chain store sales in the last weekend before Christmas, as signs pointed to an extended holiday spending run, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales increased 0.6 percent in the week ended Dec. 20 after a 2.1 percent rise in the preceding week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in its joint report. Compared with the previous year, sales for the week rose 5.7 percent. Sales in the latest week exceeded their prior five-year median comparison and are expected to finish the year strong.

In contrast to last year, luxury items sold well in the latest week, perhaps evidence of firmer consumer sentiment. However, discounters struggled to move their cut-rate priced goods.

According to the report, this holiday season an estimated 8 percent to 10 percent of all money spent was used on gift cards compared with 5 percent last year. This trend should stretch holiday spending into January when people redeem their gift certificates.

The ICSC-UBS Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is compiled from a group of major discount, department and chain stores across the country that report their weekly results. The index measures sales growth with the year 1977 equaling 100.

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[farmfriend]

That danged global warming again.

[Starwind]

Holiday shopping failing to sizzle
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/7553022.htm

Analysts said retail sales may finish at the low end of forecasts, but gift cards may boost figures in January.
By Tom Belden
Inquirer Staff Writer


The last weekend before Christmas did not deliver the sales bonanza merchants were hoping for, but analysts said yesterday that last-minute sales - and especially the sale of gift cards this year - could save the season for many retailers.

Shoppers spent a one-day season high of $7.3 billion on Saturday, a shade better than the $7.2 billion spent on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, according to the National Retail Sales Estimate.

"The weekend was moderately good, but I think this is not necessarily the wrap-up," said Michael P. Neimira, lead consultant to ShopperTrak, a Chicago firm that calculates the retail-sales estimate. "January is the true end of the holiday season."

In the Northeast, retailers who had seen sales slow down on two snowy weekends in December got the heavy foot traffic in malls and shopping centers they expected over the weekend. But some analysts who follow both the regional and national markets said that sales would probably be less than the 4.5 percent to 5 percent increase over 2002 that they forecast earlier this fall.

"Unless there's an incredible surge, it's going to come in at about 3 percent," said Brian Ford, partner and retail specialist at Ernst & Young in Philadelphia. "The department stores have gotten hit pretty hard. You could see their promotions [sales] over the weekend."

Ford and other analysts said they hoped that the sales figures would improve when final tallies were done in January and consumers have used the growing number of gift cards and certificates sold this year.

"Everybody is reporting terrific gift-card sales," Ford said.

Retailers do not count revenue from selling gift cards until the recipient redeems them, with the majority of the redemptions coming in January, the retail experts said.

Tara Weiner, the Philadelphia-based national director of retail consulting for Deloitte & Touche, said she still anticipated sales could finish 5 percent ahead of last year. The average consumer in the Northeast was expected to spend even more than people who live elsewhere, she said.

According to a survey Deloitte conducted this fall, about three out of five shoppers planned to give someone a gift card or certificate this holiday season, up from 49 percent three years ago, Weiner added. "I think we're going to have a bit of that reported in January," she said.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said that last-minute buying showed "some improvement," but was not enough to offset weak business in the early part of the month.

The world's largest retailer said that December same-store sales growth was still tracking at the low end of its projected range of 3 percent to 5 percent. For the second week in a row, traffic was down from year-ago levels for the week ended Friday, the company said on its prerecorded conference call.

Target Corp. said its sales for the last week and all of December were tracking below its expectations.

The federal government's raised terror-alert status, announced Sunday, is also seen as a headache for merchants, who are now counting on heavy shopping this week to meet their goals. "I think we're going to have a bit of that [revenue] reported in January," she said.

C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, based in Charleston, S.C., said the threat "could reduce retailers' ability to have a huge business [yesterday and today], and the week after Christmas. It may likely make people who are close to being done decide they've purchased enough."

Some representatives of retail firms and organizations disagreed.

"Consumers learned to be vigilant, and I don't think this will have an effect" on their shopping, said Karen MacDonald, a spokeswoman at Taubman Centers Inc., which owns and manages 31 shopping centers in 13 states.

Ellen Tolley, a spokeswoman at the National Retail Federation, agreed, saying that "since Sept. 11, consumers have learned to go on with their lives," and she did not foresee traffic being hurt.

Online sales, which account for an overall small portion of holiday results, have been performing at the high end of expectations. Online sales were up 31 percent to $1.88 billion for the week ended Friday, according to comScore Networks.

ComScore Networks said that holiday online sales were expected to generate sales growth at the high end of its forecast of 25 percent to 30 percent.

For traditional retailers, the Saturday before Christmas has been the busiest day of the season for the last several years, as it was this year, according to ShopperTrak, which tallies sales at 30,000 retail outlets.

Last year, the Monday before Christmas was the second-biggest sales day.

In 2002, the last week before Christmas accounted for 41 percent of holiday sales, up from 34 percent the previous year, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

A year ago, the week after Christmas accounted for 11.8 percent of sales, up from 10.6 percent in 2001.

[Starwind]

U.S. retailers pin hopes on after-Christmas blitz
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031226/retail_sales_1.html

Friday December 26, 9:14 am ET
By Emily Kaiser

CHICAGO, Dec 26 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers wished for mountains of plastic gift cards on Friday as they kicked off their annual after-Christmas blitz, the last chance to salvage a disappointing holiday season.

For the second year in a row, Christmas demand failed to live up to expectations, particularly at discount and lower-priced department stores. But unlike last year, luxury chains appeared to be thriving, helped by a recovering U.S. economy and stock market.

Retailers blamed the disappointing sales on a myriad of factors including bad weather, a heightened security alert and the popularity of plastic gift cards.

The gift cards are not recorded as revenue until they are redeemed for merchandise, so retailers are hoping that people spend them fast enough to count toward December sales.

The International Council of Shopping Centers trade group estimated that gift card demand doubled to roughly 10 percent of all holiday dollars spent this year, so stores are counting on quite a few cards coming in this weekend.

Many people took Friday off to extend the Christmas holiday through the weekend, giving retailers hope that stores would be especially crowded this year.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - News) on Friday reported a surge in last-minute holiday shoppers on the last two days before Christmas, but it was not enough to make up for a soft start to December, and the retailer still expects to hit only the low end of its sales forecast for the month.

"We did see improvements in the last shopping days, but not enough to meet our original plan," Wal-Mart said on a recorded message, updating sales through Christmas Eve.

Many U.S. retailers were banking on a last-minute rush of shoppers to bring sales up to expectations for December, which is typically the biggest shopping month of the year.

Wal-Mart said shopping card balances were up more than 20 percent from a year earlier, and it hoped that people would spend the credits in the next week.

Christmas day newspapers were packed with coupons, and stores were blanketed with banners proclaiming steep discounts on books, jewelry, clothing, toys and electronics.

Luxury chains continued to shine, and analysts said many were able to sell merchandise at full price, which should protect profits.

Sharper Image Corp. (NasdaqNM:SHRP - News), which sells pricey gadgets, said on Friday that sales at stores open at least a year were up 21 percent through Christmas Eve, and raised its earnings forecast.

"We are very pleased by our robust holiday sales," Chief Executive Officer Richard Thalheimer said in a statement.

"Our stores especially benefited from last-minute shoppers and the Dec. 20th beginning of Hanukkah," he said.

Analysts expect upbeat reports from other high-end retailers in the next few weeks.

[Starwind]

Might wanna note posts 4 & 5 above as well...
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Wal-Mart Says December Sales Near Low End of Forecast (Update3)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_7PyfNI.E2g&refer=us#

Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year are rising near the low end of its forecast as a surge in last-minute holiday shopping didn't make up for a slow start to the season.

The company had forecast a same-store sales gain of 3 percent to 5 percent for the month from a year ago, Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart said. Sales of gift cards rose 20 percent.

The number of customers visiting Wal-Mart stores picked up in the two days before Christmas as shoppers who had delayed holiday purchases because of snowstorms earlier in the season wrapped up their gift buying. December sales may be helped in the next week as customers redeem gift cards, which don't count as revenue until they are used, and search for after-Christmas discounts.

``Consumers aren't stupid,'' said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research, who called Wal-Mart's results ``disappointing.'' ``They are very well aware of the discounting that goes on immediately after the Christmas holiday.''

Sales of men's clothing, toys and electronics have boosted results this month, while demand for women's apparel and goods for the home were sluggish, Wal-Mart said.

Shares of Wal-Mart rose 15 cents to $52.59 at 10:19 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. They had gained 3.8 percent this year.

Spending Shifts

``We did see improvements in the last shopping days, but not enough to meet our original plan,'' Wal-Mart spokeswoman Sharon Weber said. While sales will rise at least 3 percent, Wal-Mart fell short of its revenue expectations, she said.

Other retailers including No. 2 U.S. discounter Target Corp. and Best Buy Co., the largest U.S. electronics retailer, have said sales were below expectations.

Those results contrast with sales at some upscale and specialty retailers. Sharper Image Corp., which sells items such as Ionic Breeze air purifiers and reclining massage chairs, boosted its fourth-quarter results after monthly same-store sales surged 21 percent through Dec. 24. Chico's FAS Inc., a women's casual-clothing retailer, said sales may rise as much as 21 percent this month.

Wal-Mart may be losing some sales as some shoppers feel more confident about the economy while lower-income customers, who didn't benefit as much from the tax cut and stock-market improvements, are still curbing spending, said Michael Niemira, economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers.

``It's going to be difficult for Wal-Mart to recapture a lot of the shift that's gone on,'' Niemira said. ``It's a transitional thing. They'll get back and be the bellwether.''
Last Updated: December 26, 2003 10:20 EST