[Poohbah]

Where are you getting this information?

Figures for the DF-15 (the workhorse

It's obvious that your knowledge of the Chinese military is at least 5 years out of date - you've shown that with your comments on their ICBMs, submarines, fighter jets, & now their theater ballistic missiles.

A lot has NOT happened in 5 years. The Song class of SSKs turned out to be duds--so the ChiComs have to buy more Kilos. The Type 093 is still "under construction," and will be about as good as a late-build Permit-class boat. Their ICBM forces are, to put it mildly, stagnant.

The DF-15 has a CEP ~50 meters using GPS or Glonass.

Uh-huh. GPS is subject to "selective availability." Glonass simply doesn't work that well--you'd get 300 meter CEP at best.

Only a complete idiot relies on a guidance system controlled by one's enemy.

And, of course, this assumes that nobody in the loop for building the DF-15s walked off with the money and ripped off the PLA--despite fraud and corruption being rampant in the ChiCom military...

Many of them are terminally guided.

Facts and figures, please. What sort of terminal guidance? When was it tested? Did it actually work?

Same with the medium-range DF-21s.

In that case, the DF-21 threat's already been killed--just deceive their GPS systems, and watch the warheads land WAY off target.

Problem is, China now has long-range artillery that can reach Taiwan as well. And while a CEP of 50m is still too high to target individual aircraft it can probably cause big problems for large stationary facilities like hangars or fuel dumps.

And, of course, the ROC AF isn't smart enough to put in underground infrastructure, unlike their wily inscrutable counterparts on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.

BTW, there is an issue with long range artillery--if they are as accurate as their US counterparts, your miss distance will be about 500 meters long or short of target, and 200-300 meters left/right.

You don't have to destroy warplanes to render them unfit for combat.

True. But you have to destroy real targets.

And, even then, you have to follow through with boots on the ground--and unless the ChiComs get Louis Farrakhan to organize a "Million Man Swim," that 80+ miles of Taiwan Strait is going to stop them dead until 2015--by which point, they're going to have some more pressing issues to deal with.

[Filibuster_60]

If you're so sure Taiwan's safe I wonder why they just don't declare independence. Instead Taiwan continues to act as if they utterly need our protection, while our own leaders act as if the supposedly obsolete PLA can actually do some real damage. You tell me what's going on here.

The first Type 093 is undergoing sea trial, the Song has now entered serial production, the DF-31 has been deployed in small numbers, the PLAN's new 052C DDGs are superior to the Russian Sovremennys. They're obviously not moving quickly but to keep things in perspective, how quickly is Taiwan moving in acquiring the weapons they signed for nearly 3 years ago?

Assuming a surprise attack, the first wave of Chinese missiles can indeed use GPS guidance, as 5 minutes is too short for our government to determine how exactly to intervene. Thereafter China will still have its own regional navigation satellites (the 3-satellite Beidou constellation destined to be 8), plus 8 electro-optical & radar satellites soon to be launched. As for long-range artillery, sheer numbers will be a problem for Taiwan.

The biggest threat lies in electronic warfare: Taiwan's C4I infrastructure remains relatively unprotected from EMP/radio-frequency attacks, & China will have plenty of anti-radiation missiles to throw at them.

Taiwan can't be invaded successfully, for obvious reasons, but in a few years the PLA can severely impair its defenses & pressure it into an unfavorable political settlement, especially if US remains preoccupied with war on terror.