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As for the effect of the PRC's missiles, it would be far from nil. They'd have excellent intelligence on what to target in Taiwan because of the open nature of the latter's society as well as the fact that the PRC has had 50 years to infiltrate agents into sensitive positions throughout the island.

The CEP on those missiles is about 600 meters. That means that 50% of the missiles will land within 600 meters of the target; the rest will land further out. That means that your average miss distance will be at least half a mile.

If you're not using nukes, those missiles are only usable as terror weapons.

A bolt from the blue salvo of several 100 missiles would disrupt Taiwan's initial response.

How so? They aren't hitting critical targets--they are hitting NEAR critical targets. They're called "missiles" for a reason.

Part of its Air Force surely would get caught on the ground and its ability to mobilize would be hindered.

Fine. The airplanes are on the ground while missiles land 600 meters or more away from them. Unless you're talking about nukes, those planes are going to be fine.

Couple that with the PRC seizing an airhead or two and flying in reinforcements and the panic that would ensure would be far out of proportion to the actual combat ability of the ChiCom troops on the ground.

Actually, what would be likely to happen is that a few paratroopers would be stuck on the ground, and the PRC's combat airlift capability would be destroyed.

Where are you getting this information? It's obvious that your knowledge of the Chinese military is at least 5 years out of date - you've shown that with your comments on their ICBMs, submarines, fighter jets, & now their theater ballistic missiles. The DF-15 has a CEP ~50 meters using GPS or Glonass. Many of them are terminally guided. Same with the medium-range DF-21s.

Fine. The airplanes are on the ground while missiles land 600 meters or more away from them. Unless you're talking about nukes, those planes are going to be fine.

Problem is, China now has long-range artillery that can reach Taiwan as well. And while a CEP of 50m is still too high to target individual aircraft it can probably cause big problems for large stationary facilities like hangars or fuel dumps. You don't have to destroy warplanes to render them unfit for combat.

That's why the mainland is adding a large number of short range missles every year. As for their accuracy, no one is entirely sure what off the shelf upgrades have been made with Russian and/or Loral/Clintonian assistance. In any event, quanatity has a quality all its own. Between their missiles, sleepers/SF, and their attack aircraft (yes, they're mostly elderly), they can disrupt Taiwan's response. Cause chaos. Sow confusion. Degrade capabilities.

Compare this situation to that faced by the French in 1940 after the panzers broke through. The French still had the ability to resist, but their political leadership thought they were broken and an accomodationist/defeatist faction came to the fore.

People mistakenly analogize Taiwan to Israel when it comes to their qualitative military superiority. The fact of the matter is, a lot of their hardware is rather old and they have a real problem upgrading it. China, on the other hand, not only has a massive quantitative superiority, but also access to excellent Russian equipment of recent vintage. Furthermore, Taiwan's young people are creatures of modern culture. The garrison state mentality that existed in the early years is gone. If China were to move on Taiwan, there would be some in the public and the government who would advocate taking a HK deal. It's a question of will, that's the true center of gravity.