The way I see it there's only one problem with your scenario and it may simply be with your choice of using the label "hardcore" to describe Rudy. Based on his stance on abortion, I don't think you can rightly describe Rudy as a "hardcore" conservative. The rest of your post is intriguing, though. :)
I am sorry I wasn't clear. I said Rove & Co. would engineer that the talking head speculation would be that it would be a 'hardcore' conservative who could alienate more people than win over.
Then the nominee would be someone who clearly isn't a hardcore conservative, Rudy. This would short-circuit any of that talk (which would steal attention from the Dem primaries and time leading up to the convention). I agree with you - Rudy is no hardcore conservative. He is conservative enough, though, and has a wide appeal, and also is an excellent choice to run the next phases of the War on Terror (2008 and beyond).