Posted on 12/18/2003 10:29:09 PM PST by GOPcapitalist
Conservatives Suffer Major Setback in Houston Election - What The Heck Happened?
December 6, 2003 is a date that will be remembered as a disastrous day for conservatives in Houston.
How did we go from the prospects six months ago of electing a conservative mayor and controller and as many as ten conservatives to City Council to a major setback?
The "inside" story of what went wrong is both long and tragic with many factors that put us where we are today.
Let's start with the major race - Orlando Sanchez, a good man who really understands the city's problems and had common sense conservative ideas, lost big. The mistakes were many:
(1) Sanchez should have stayed with the Rains-Calabrese team from 2001 who got him 153,000 run-off votes and plenty of resources.
(2) The conservatives last spring should have been locked up for Sanchez. Instead, he had to deal with six months of criticism from Bill White and the "then" mayoral candidate Michael Berry. The base was never tied down as Bill White received around 35% of the GOP vote in the initial vote. This forced Sanchez to scramble till the end to lock down the base and that never let him go beyond the base.
(3) The Harris County Republican Party, unlike two years ago, was not as effective as it needed to be. Recall two years ago the HCRP locked down the GOP early (recall early polls that gave Chris Bell 25% of the GOP vote, but after a mail and phone program put together by the HCRP and GOP consultant Jeff Yates - Bell found himself at well under 10% and out of the run-off). This time the HCRP campaign was either mistargeted or ineffective or both. The Bill White "liberal" message (maybe its time to put this out to pasture) never got any traction beyond the hard core base that listens to KSEV. In the middle of all this the HCRP Executive Director was charged with assault on a pro-immigration activist which got prominent play in the media, possibly contributing to shifting Hispanic votes.
(4) The Bill White campaign and money machine was also important. Estimates are he spent $8 million plus - a new Houston record. He also co-opted early on key Bush supporters which should not have been allowed to occur. This made the obtaining of national GOP money more difficult.
(5) The turnout machine - that did not function. There were clearly more than enough Sanchez 2001 supporters out there. If you turned them out you would beat Bill White, lets look at the 2001 versus 2003 numbers:
Brown 165,275
Sanchez 153,894
White 136,617
Sanchez 81,824
The bottom line they didn't turnout. Why? The message of the 2003 campaign was not compelling - (neighborhood mayor?), it was time for Christmas shopping, Bill White seemed to be a good businessman with a similar message so we don't care who wins, and Sanchez had been cut to pieces over the summer by White and then candidate Berry and never recovered. At the end of the day this campaign flameout had multiple causes of failure.
What About The Other Races?
The Controller's race where a big spending Lee Brown minion and one of the leading alternative sexual life-style politicians in the U.S. crushed fiscal conservative Bruce Tatro.
What happened here? Tatro again could've won, but like the Sanchez race the base was never locked down, the campaign message never registered with voters and no attempt was made to let pro-family voters know that Ms. Parker's life-style also defines her politics (gay marriage, affirmative action for gays, etc).
Again, we were outspent and Ms. Parker to the average voter looked like an intelligent businesswoman, (sounds familiar) - it's the White message all over again. No one should be surprised, her votes followed White's.
As far as we could tell there was no compelling message in any independent campaign (HCRP, Harris County GOP PAC, Conservative Republicans of Harris County) and also it's important to remember that Houston is a lean democratic city and with all things being equal we don't win without obtaining some swing voters. In this race with so much to work with we didn't play the cards we had and were handed a landslide defeat.
City Council - The ultimate disaster, we were building for six years to obtain control of council and instead we are back where we were six years ago, six years of hard work, candidate recruitment and lots of dollars down the drain.
Let's review the body count:
Bert Keller, At Large Position 4 - Gone - Generally a solid pro-business conservative who voted against a 1 cent tax cut recently and was literally sacrificed by KSEV radio (Dan Patrick) for not being 100% with us. While I was disappointed in his vote too, I understand an 80% friend is better than a zero friend. Bert's a good man who voted wrong once and he deserved better. If we don't get rid of this mentality, conservatives will be irrelevant politically in this city. This is an election we gave away and where were the Republican leaders to defend Bert? Nowhere to be seen.
Jeff Daily, District G - Beaten - In a narrow defeat to moderate GOP'er Pam Holm, we lost one of the brightest and most innovative fiscal conservatives in the city. What happened? Holm was successful in muting their differences in the eyes of the voters and Daily's campaign failed to sell the voters on the significant differences between them. They called her a liberal but that doesn't get it done anymore. We lost a potential strong conservative leader on council in this race.
Gabe Vasquez, District H - Quit - I know he didn't run again - too bad. He'd never be a 100% but as a new GOP'er he could've provided a critical vote on some issues. Now we get another White clone instead.
Shelley Sekula-Gibbs - At Large Position 3 - She held off liberal Peter Brown. One hopes she becomes more outspoken in light of the reduced number of conservatives on council. It's of course easier to drop below the radar screen.
M.J. Khan, District F - A GOP oriented businessman won a hard fought battle with Terry McConn. Unfortunately, in the run-off the McConn campaign via consultant Allen Blakemore unleashed the nastiest mail piece of the cycle - "The Birds of a Feather" mailer that many call race baiting. Khan was disappointed that neither the HCRP or Chairman Jared Woodfill condemned it. His victory party did not have many key GOP'ers. Where were you? M.J. spoke at our Lincoln Day Dinner a few years ago and has been very supportive. Could some in the GOP be trying to push him into the White orbit? We need all the votes we can get, especially in the minority community. I hope we haven't lost him.
That is the run-off review - generally dismal results. The new council lines up with only a minority of GOP'ers and of these a few are focused on neighborhood issues, so essentially Mayor-elect Bill White has a majority for anything he wants and he can if he wishes, ignore the conservative GOP minority.
Of course, if things had gone as they should have, we would have had a council with a GOP majority with strong conservative leadership -Ellis, Daily, Keller, Khan, Sekula-Gibbs, Goldberg, Lawrence, Vasquez and Berry. The tragedy in all this is what we had and how it was thrown away.
(Excerpt) Read more at texasconservativereview.com ...
HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL AFTER 2001 ELECTIONS: 7 Conservatives: Ellis, Keller, Goldberg, Sekula-Gibbs, Wiseman, Tatro, Berry
1 moderate republican: Vasquez
6 liberal Democrats: Robinson, Parker, Mims-Galloway, Quan, Alvarado, Edwards
1 Democrat tiebreaker: Mayor Lee P. Brown
VOTING TOTALS ON COUNCIL: 8 to 6 Republicans on issues where Vasquez votes with us, 8 to 7 Democrats where Vasquez votes against us.
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN -
HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL PROSPECTS IN 2003 ELECTIONS:
9 Conservatives: Ellis, Keller, Berry, Goldberg, Sekula-Gibbs, Wiseman, Lawrence, Khan, Daily
1 moderate republican: Vasquez
4 liberal Democrats: Mims-Galloway, Quan, Alvarado, Edwards
1 Republican tiebreaker: Mayor Orlando Sanchez
VOTING TOTALS ON COUNCIL: 10 to 4 Republicans when Vasquez votes with us, 9 to 5 Republicans when Vasquez votes against us.
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED -
HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL AFTER 2003 ELECTIONS:
7 Conservatives: Ellis, Berry, Goldberg, Sekula-Gibbs, Wiseman, Lawrence, Khan
1 moderate Republican: Holm
6 liberal Democrats: Mims-Galloway, Quan, Alvarado, Edwards, Green, Garcia
1 Democrat tiebreaker: Mayor Bill White
VOTING TOTALS ON COUNCIL: 8 to 6 Republicans when Holm votes with us, 8 to 7 Democrats when Holm votes against us.
NET GAIN FOR CONSERVATIVES ON CITY COUNCIL IN THE 2003 ELECTIONS: ZERO
I am predicting that most city council votes will split 7-7 with Bill White breaking the tie in favor of the Dems just like Lee Brown did. I say this even though Pam Holm is nominally a Republican. Holm, aside from being a professed big tent moderate, is in big with the "civic beautification" and "smart growth" crowds (she used to run one of their groups). Thus I expect that she will take the ideological place of Gabe Vasquez on council, meaning she'll vote with us from time to time giving us an 8-6 majority, but more often than not will side with the Dems ala a Lincoln Chafee, Arlen Spector, or Bill Ratliff - another of those "49% Republicans."
The key to this whole mess is the Keller race, which we SHOULD NOT HAVE LOST under any circumstances. There are two places of blame for losing that one:
1. Keller himself, who was STUPID to vote against the tax rollback and STUPID to present himself to non-GOP voters as an ally of Brown. He could have won his race outright much as Mark Ellis did by simply staying quiet and voting right. Instead he pissed off the conservative base and they unwittingly put Ron Green in office.
2. KSEV radio, which spent much of the week before the election beating Keller over the head with his idiotic vote and comments. KSEV publicized his faux pas to conservative voters, who in turn unwittingly dropped him in favor of Green, who they knew absolutely nothing about. It turns out now that Ron Green is an ultra-leftist gay marriage supporting tax and spend Democrat.
HAD KELLER WON we would have obtained a clear 8 to 6 majority on council plus Holm's vote when she sided with us. That means we could have blocked virtually any leftist bill put forth by Bill White. But thanks to an idiot candidate and a few pompous blowhards at a certain "conservative" radio station, we the next two years to watch as Bill White and the smart-growther nazis ram their urban planning agenda through council and into law.
Yeah - and that's the most sickening part of it all. I'll guesstimate that of that 18% about 10% of them were Democrats. That means that a 10% block of liberal democrat voters out of the entire Houston population is now dictating our city government's policy.
conservative voters, who in turn unwittingly dropped him in favor of Green, who they knew absolutely nothing about. It turns out now that Ron Green is an ultra-leftist gay marriage supporting tax and spend Democrat."
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Conservatives apparently do this over and over again. Cutting off their nose, to spite their face.
I don't know anything about this elections, except what you posted, but it sure sounds like the same type of conservative crowd we encouter in CA, who totally ignore reality, and end up putting leftists Democrats in power, because they are devouring their own.
The same way they were "punishing" GHW Bush for breaking his tax pledge by staying home or voting for Perot, and giving us Clinton.
Seems they never learn.
That's exactly it. Bert Keller, who was running for the citywide at-large seat, was a two term district councilman who had always voted with the Republican block on council. He is a registered Republican primary voter and was an active Republican before he won his district seat four years ago. Keller also had a formal endorsement from the Republican party and practically all of the Republican clubs that endorse. He made one big mistake by voting against the 1-cent tax rollback a few weeks before the election and the local talk radio crowd went nuts. They blasted Keller on the air constantly for the week going into the election. Several radio and "conservative" personalities publicly withdrew their support for Keller and even gave it to Ron Green, who nobody but the liberal Dems knew anything about at the time. Green simply happened to be Keller's opponent so, in an act of vengeance against Keller for his tax vote, they through their support to the first guy they saw challenging him.
Shortly after recieving the radio host endorsements Green sent out a letter through the Harris County Democratic Party PUBLICLY DISAVOWING his newfound "conservative" supporters while also professing to be a lifelong Democrat and a supporter of homosexual partner benefits. Do you think this phased the talk radio hosts any? Heck no! They just kept hammering away at Keller until election day. Keller then ends up narrowly losing a runoff to Green by about 2 percentage points, thus giving the liberals a tie on city council which can be broken in their favor by the Democrat mayor.
But the street has to work both ways. RiNO's always tell us, we have to vote for them because the alternative is a Democrat. Then they turn around and vote with the Democrats in the legislature -- sometimes, even on organizational issues.
I won't let you have that one.
The business Republicans talk about responsible compromise all the time, but they won't compromise with conservatives because we're beneath the salt, we're trash. They ruined the Party rather than help Barry in '64 and they did so very frankly, and they blackmailed Ronnie in '80. But when the shoe's on the other foot, Dubya, as governor of Texas, runs primary candidates against incumbent Republican conservatives repeatedly. He did this in the Texas board of ed races, and he's reportedly got Karl Rove cranked up to take out Tom Tancredo in Colorado, because Tancredo won't shut up about illegal immigration, an issue Bush has capitulated -- no doubt citing California, but in fact kowtowing to wage-busting Republican businessmen.
I guess the question is, what's it worth to you, to discipline your delegates? This was Jack Brooks/Steve Stockman in photo-negative. The Democrats over in Beaumont gave the 9th District to Stockman, in order to punish Brooks for rolling over on 2A on them, over Clinton's 1994 "crime bill". Then they went back to voting for Democrats and put Lampson in.
You overlook a critical factor: Bruce Tatro is a graceless jerk who caters to the business interests usually at the direct, even annoying expense of constituents' interests.
He browned me off the first time I ever saw his name: when he first ran for city council, he paid a sign company to plaster my neighborhood with 119 signs on utility poles, medians, and the right-of-way. I know it was 119, because I picked them all up. I'm not counting the two or three really big ones I couldn't reach because they put them 15' up utility poles. I was working with neighborhood beautification at the time and picking up all the political signs from places they ought not to be.
Tatro got on the wrong side of Spring Branch voters by supporting a business group that proposed to put a grease-rendering facility in the middle of a residential area. It was a real howler -- and Tatro argued down the line for the grease-renderers, whose business was initially called The Grease Spot, later changed to something bland like Downstream Environmental or something like that. I called them "Downwind", for part of the nuisance a business like that would bring to a residential part of town. The business model was to locate where land values were lower, then slide under the radar until they got their permits, and then put together a non-engineered facility assembled from off-the-shelf components by personnel none of whom were engineers of any description. The key idea was to become the cost leader in grease recycling by cutting corners. Spring Branch was up in arms and repeatedly put 300-600 people in meetings called by TNRCC, the residents opposing the granting of the necessary environmental permits. There's more to that story, but suffice it to say that these meetings brought the state and federal delegations out.....County Commissioner Steve Radack (R), city councilwoman Annise Parker (D and GLPC), Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D)(sigh), state senator John Whitmire (D), and I think County Commissioner Jerry Eversole (R) were among the pols in attendance, besides Tatro.
Eventually the proposal was shot down, I believe by TNRCC -- though Houston City Council could have acted still, since the owners of The Grease Spot had reportedly made some material misstatements or omissions in their presentation to the City when they obtained their City of Houston permits.
Tatro never worked with neighborhoods, often worked against their issues, was publicly invisible except when he was fighting Brown on fiscal matters, and gave me the impression he spent all his time with business lobbyists, accepting bags of money.
So, yeah, he kinda had trouble with his base......as evidenced by the fact that newly elected councilwoman Toni Lawrence (I contributed to her campaigns in '01 and this year), a conservative Republican, ran against him in the GOP primary two years ago, provoked by the fact that Tatro was ignoring neighborhood issues and is so incredibly yuppie-hubristic and wilfully obtuse.
Tatro has done some good work from time to time, such as by exposing Lee Brown's colossally stupid SimHouston folly, which was a computerization "initiative" that supposedly was going to put a free office suite within reach of anyone who could visit the Houston city library....on an effectively non-bid basis, as a result of some hard (possibly unethical) pushing by the vendor on City staffers. He's also been good at tax and budget issues and has caused Brown to call him names, which is always good -- being on Lee P. Brown's good side always being an indictment of one's own character. But Tatro always gave the impression that he was working only for some of the taxpayers, principally those who had a lot of money.
I think that's your answer right there. Bill White, a former lobbyist himself, anesthetized the GOP leadership......with what? How the hell does a former chairman of the Texas Rats put the GOP to sleep?
But he apparently did it, and that answers all your other points about failure of the GOP to put up a fight for Sanchez, failure to identify issues, failure basically to campaign for a Republican.
Sounds like White told the big-rich "bidness" Republicans some things they maybe shouldn't have believed, considering the source.
Or maybe David Horowitz is right, and it all does come together at the top. Who knows? Maybe White had Dubya's blessing, too. Ever think of that?
Do I take it from your remarks that we should all just forget about conservative principles and just elect RiNO's?
Do I take it you'd never support a conservative Republican, on the theory that RiNO's are always more "electable"?
Your example is Ahnuld. Mine is Ronnie Reagan.
Go ahead and live life on your knees before Bill Clinton. I won't.
As always, a FReep mail will get you on or off this Houston topics ping list.
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