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Jobs Come and Go (One of the smartest economists in the world hits the nail on the head)
www.townhall.com ^ | 11/26/2003 | Walter E. Williams

Posted on 12/18/2003 3:32:00 PM PST by sly671

Jobs come and go Walter E. Williams

In 1970, the telecommunications industry employed 421,000 switchboard operators. In the same year, Americans made 9.8 billion long distance calls. Today, the telecommunications industry employs only 78,000 operators. That's a tremendous 80 percent job loss.

What should Congress have done to save those jobs? Congress could have taken a page from India's history. In 1924, Mahatma Gandhi attacked machinery, saying it "helps a few to ride on the backs of millions" and warned, "The machine should not make atrophies the limbs of man." With that kind of support, Indian textile workers were able to politically block the introduction of labor-saving textile machines. As a result, in 1970 India's textile industry had the level of productivity of ours in the 1920s.

Michael Cox, chief economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and author Richard Alms tell the rest of the telecommunications story in their Nov. 17 New York Times article, "The Great Job Machine." Spectacular technological advances made it possible for the telecommunications industry to cut its manpower needs down to 78,000 to handle not the annual 9.8 billion long distance calls in 1970, but today's over 98 billion calls.

One forgotten beneficiary in today's job loss demagoguery is the consumer. Long distance calls are a tiny fraction of their cost in 1970. Just since 1984, long distance costs have fallen by 60 percent. Using 1970s technology, to make today's 98 billion calls would require 4.2 million operators. That's 3 percent of our labor force. Moreover, a long distance call would cost 40 times more than it does today.

Finding cheaper ways to produce goods and services frees up labor to produce other things. If productivity gains aren't made, where in the world would we find workers to produce all those goods that weren't even around in the 1970s?

It's my guess that the average anti-free-trade person wouldn't protest, much less argue that Congress should have done something about the job loss in the telecommunications industry. He'd reveal himself an idiot. But there's no significant economic difference between an industry using technology to reduce production costs and using cheaper labor to do the same. In either case, there's no question that the worker who finds himself out of a job because of the use of technology or cheaper labor might encounter hardships. The political difference is that it's easier to organize resentment against India and China than against technology.

Both Republican and Democratic interventionist like to focus on job losses as they call for trade restrictions, but let us look at what was happening in the 1990s. Cox and Alm report that recent Bureau of Labor Statistics show an annual job loss from a low of 27 million in 1993 to a high of 35.4 million in 2001. In 2000, when unemployment reached its lowest level, 33 million jobs were lost. That's the loss side. However, annual jobs created ranged from 29.6 million in 1993 to a high of 35.6 million in 1999.

These are signs of a healthy economy, where businesses start up, fail, downsize and upsize, and workers are fired and workers are hired all in the process of adapting to changing technological, economic and global conditions. Societies become richer when this process is allowed to occur. Indeed, because our nation has a history of allowing this process to occur goes a long way toward explaining why we are richer than the rest of the world.

Those Americans calling for government restrictions that would deny companies and ultimately consumers to benefit from cheaper methods of production are asking us to accept lower wealth in order to protect special interests. Of course, they don't cloak their agenda that way. It's always "national security," "level playing fields" and "protecting jobs". Don't fall for it -- we'll all become losers.

©2003 Creators Syndicate, Inc.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: trade; walterwilliams
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To: Daus
Please explain why you feel better being replaced by a machine than by an Indian?

Because in the first case there's an opportunity to better yourself by either running the machine, building a new one, fixing it, etc. You've increased your value as now you can produce a lot more per hour.

In the second case what opportunities do you have? Manage a group of people 5k miles away / sarcasm? Shuffle around some paperwork? Move on to a low paying retail job?
121 posted on 12/19/2003 8:49:18 AM PST by lelio
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
A fundamental economic theorem is that demand goes down as price goes up.

Really?! I feel so enlightened all of a sudden. Well, if you put it that way I would have to say that the price of exporting jobs would likely be higher than the price of keeping them in the U.S. if the cost of exporting jobs included disqualification from U.S. tax incentives and U.S. government contracts.

Why are you ashamed to admit you are talking about UNIONS?

Because unions are obviously your own personal little fetish. I'm referring to an array of legal, economic, and social institutions that are much, much broader than collective bargaining.

122 posted on 12/19/2003 8:54:05 AM PST by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)
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To: lelio
Are you saying Ayn would say its okay to trade with a communist country?

 More and better production is good for all men, everywhere. What’s good for Toyota is good for America. That’s individualism, and that’s Americanism.
     Government interference with free trade is un-American. Sacrificing one’s standard of living in order to subsidize inefficient domestic producers is un-American. The tribal fear of foreigners is un-American. Resentment at others’ success is un-American.
     A patriotic American acts as a capitalist and an individualist: he buys the best, wherever it may be found.

123 posted on 12/19/2003 8:54:24 AM PST by gcruse (http://gcruse.typepad.com/)
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To: lelio
Because in the first case there's an opportunity to better yourself by either running the machine, building a new one, fixing it, etc. You've increased your value as now you can produce a lot more per hour. In the second case what opportunities do you have? Manage a group of people 5k miles away / sarcasm? Shuffle around some paperwork? Move on to a low paying retail job?

How can you assume (to use the authors example) that a telephone operator would have ANY qualifications to 'run, fix, or invent' the machine that replaced him or her? If they had those skills, they wouldn't be operators in the first place.
124 posted on 12/19/2003 8:55:51 AM PST by Daus
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To: sly671
That coming from someone with university tenure doesn't carry a lot of credibility.


BUMP

125 posted on 12/19/2003 8:56:57 AM PST by tm22721 (May the UN rest in peace)
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To: gcruse
Sacrificing one’s standard of living in order to subsidize inefficient domestic producers is un-American.

And sacrificing our own standard of living to promote foreign development is supposed to be pro-American???

gcruse, IMHO you gotta be certifiably demented.

126 posted on 12/19/2003 9:00:24 AM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: Willie Green; lelio
I'm trying to demonstrate to lelio that what he thinks he knows about Ayn Rand ain't necessarily so.
127 posted on 12/19/2003 9:03:18 AM PST by gcruse (http://gcruse.typepad.com/)
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To: lelio
Are you saying Ayn would say its okay to trade with a communist country?

Rand and Marx were both atheists.
Neither one was encumbered by any sense of morality.

128 posted on 12/19/2003 9:04:19 AM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: tm22721
Good point. Not to argue ad hominem, but it's helpful to understand that the author's personal situation might influence his opinion on the issue. A tenured professor is probably one of the few positions where one does not have to worry about job loss. Just keep cranking out the lectures and articles, and you're in.
129 posted on 12/19/2003 9:05:51 AM PST by chimera
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To: Willie Green
By relocating production facilities offshore where labor is cheaper, transnational corporations AVOID the added capital investment necessary to develop and implement sophisticated, labor-saving automation.

Of course they do.

130 posted on 12/19/2003 9:10:46 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: chimera
You can't seriously argue that Walter Williams has a job because he is tenured, however much you might disagree with him.
131 posted on 12/19/2003 9:12:03 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: AntiGuv
They range from the minimum wage to environmental regulations to consumer protection laws to the employment benefits structure.

These don't raise incomes, they reduce them. They impose value judgments onto the ruthless efficiency of the marketplace.

I'm saying those value judgements should not be imposed, just that these are not institutions for increasing incomes. They are institutions for the limiting of incomes, for non-economic values.

Certainly one of the marks of civilization is the enshrinement of non-economic values in institutions. We should just call them what they are.

132 posted on 12/19/2003 9:18:44 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: Taliesan
Of course they do.

Then I've proven my point.

133 posted on 12/19/2003 9:19:21 AM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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To: Jim Cane
Big bump to you! It's good to see some people undestand political psychology as opposed to just economics. Just to add to your overall theory, Jim, I think that many of the "savings" from outsourcing et al will be extracted as "rents" by the batallions of new lawyers we are hatching.
134 posted on 12/19/2003 9:19:23 AM PST by ZeitgeistSurfer
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To: sly671
"Those Americans calling for government restrictions that would deny companies and ultimately consumers to benefit from cheaper methods of production are asking us to accept lower wealth in order to protect special interests."

Another helping of free-trade demogogery which is nothing more than espousing the special interests of the wealthy to acquire more wealth on the backs of their poorer countrymen. All this so we can have cheaper phone calls and consumer goods.
Who's gonna buy those goods after wages are chopped in half?
135 posted on 12/19/2003 9:21:20 AM PST by familyofman
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To: AntiGuv
The only real debate left is how much redistribution is appropriate and at what level redistribution becomes counterproductive.

I agree redistribution is unavoidable. The amount that is appropriate is a value-question, not an economic one. It is a religious question.

All redistribution is counterproductive, economically. It should be done for moral reasons, which will make the economy weaker, in the interest of other strengths.

136 posted on 12/19/2003 9:25:21 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: Willie Green
Yes, you've proved your point. If I can get my widgits made by cheap labor, I won't buy or build a widgit machine.

Congratulations.

137 posted on 12/19/2003 9:26:59 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: Taliesan
OOOPs, I meant "I am NOT saying these values should not be imposed...'
138 posted on 12/19/2003 9:29:08 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: familyofman
Who's gonna buy those goods after wages are chopped in half?

Those whose wages are doubled.

139 posted on 12/19/2003 9:30:40 AM PST by Taliesan
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To: Taliesan
Hmmm.. You raise some quite interesting points. I'll have to give them some thought & also ponder how they relate to the specific debate at hand.

FWIW, this has been a topic that's been on my mind a lot lately (the desirability & advisability of income redistribution as well as the overall impact of outsourcing, illegals, etc.) Yes, I confess I've been following the Exporting America series by Lou Dobbs.. ;^)

140 posted on 12/19/2003 9:31:27 AM PST by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero, something's gonna happen..)
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