Phila. Fed business conditions index 32.1 in Dec

Biz.Yahoo/Reuters ^ | December 18, 2003

[Starwind]

Phila. Fed business conditions index 32.1 in Dec
Thursday December 18, 12:15 pm ET

 NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of
Philadelphia said on Thursday its index of business conditions
in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rose in December to
32.1 from 25.9 in November.
 Economists expected a reading of 25.4 for December.
 Following is a breakdown of the survey's components:
.                                           December Index
.                        Dec      Nov     Drop    Unch   Rise
Business Conditions     32.1     25.9      7.4    50.3   39.5
New Orders              41.8     20.8      7.0    38.5   48.9
Shipments               41.1     26.8      3.3    50.0   44.4
Unfilled Orders         17.5      9.0      3.8    73.3   21.3
Delivery Time            1.7     -0.6      6.9    83.2    8.6
Inventories             -8.7    -11.6     20.3    65.7   11.6
Prices Paid             31.4     24.9      3.6    61.1   35.0
Prices Received          5.5      3.4     11.0    69.4   16.4
Number of Employees     21.9      3.3      5.1    67.8   27.0
Avg Employee Work Week  18.4     -1.0      2.1    75.4   20.5
Six months from now versus December
.                                           December Index
.                        Dec      Nov    Drop    Unch   Rise
Business Conditions     52.3     63.4     7.6    25.4   59.9
New Orders              51.8     60.2     7.5    24.3   59.3
Shipments               53.6     58.4     7.6    22.4   61.2
Unfilled Orders         25.3     22.1     3.1    59.6   28.4
Delivery Time            1.9     14.8     6.1    77.1    8.1
Inventories              9.1      8.4    19.2    41.9   28.2
Prices Paid             42.3     30.4     2.5    45.7   44.8
Prices Received         26.8     25.4     0.5    62.0   27.4
Number of Employees     16.7     21.6    10.7    55.4   27.4
Avg Employee Work Week  27.0     16.2     4.2    55.8   31.2
Capital Expenditures    23.1     17.6     4.8    41.3   27.9
 FULL REPORT:
 The Web site address is www.phil.frb.org.bos/bos0103t.html

[Starwind]

The full FRB Philadelphia report is at Business Outlook Survey - December 2003

[Starwind]

Fyi...

[LS]

We've talked about this before, but which of these regional Fed reports do you see as the "most" indicative, given that, of course, any one can be an outlier at any time?

[Starwind]

which of these regional Fed reports do you see as the "most" indicative

That involves a more elaborate answer than I have time for at the moment.

Suffice it to say, as these are regional reports and the regions vary considerably in composition of industry, none are indicative of the economy as a whole.

But there are some generalities that can be drawn from each:

Manufacturers profits are being sqeezed between input and finsihed prices. Production is up as is employment (partially filled with temps), but inventories are being keep lean and deliveries protracted. The outlook (relative to Oct/Nov/Dec) is generally for lower production and employment and worsening price squeeze yet possibly some growth in CapEx (I find that last a bit conflicted).

Bear in mind also, these reports are "diffusion indexes". They essentially go around the room and ask for a thumbs up/down/sideways on each category. That gives a good trend, but not a quantitative measurment of how strong or protracted a trend.