To: DJtex
The transcript of the vaccine selection committee mentions signature changes at amino acid positions 155 and 156 in HA. The change of H155T actually involves two mutations (C463A and A464C). Interestingly, the same changes are found in pigs and ducks. They are also found in human isolates collected just after the 1968 Pandemic. The other change also involves two mutations to produce Q156H. In Fujian it is A468T and in the other Fujian-like isolates it is A468C. It looks like the virus was pretty serious about changing those two amino acids.
Unfortunately, I suspect the "signature" will be Peter Palese's vote on the science and everyone else's focus on expediency or cost cutting (using the same old Panama strain for the 4th year in a row).
I think it will be a VERY long winter.
24 posted on
12/14/2003 8:39:50 AM PST by
kdono
To: kdono
As you noted the Korean bird flu has not been shown to infect humans. The odds of that happening have historically been very, very low. Then of course there're the issues of communicability and mortality of any strain that does manage to make the leap. Imo the odds of an avian-derived flu pandemic are not newsworthy.
Many more people lived in close proximity to livestock and their waste 100 years ago. I believe that determines the frequency of animal-to-human transmission. I think people consider it an issue now because of higher health standards. Additionally, detection and reporting of infections have dramatically improved. 100 years ago this incident wouldn't have even made local news.
25 posted on
12/14/2003 12:29:23 PM PST by
Justa
(Politically Correct is morally wrong.)
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