Posted on 12/09/2003 7:10:57 AM PST by Starwind
U.S. Oct wholesale inventories rose 0.5 pct
Tuesday December 9, 10:00 am ET
WASHINGTON, Dec 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Department report of wholesale inventories and sales, seasonally adjusted. (Percent Changes) Oct Sept (Prev) Oct03/02 Inventories Total 0.5 0.3 0.4 1.9 Durable Goods 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 Automotive 2.7 -0.4 -0.3 2.0 Prof'l equip -0.1 -0.1 0.1 3.6 Computer equip. 1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -0.9 Machinery -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -2.3 Nondurable Goods 0.8 0.5 0.5 4.1 Petroleum -0.9 2.3 2.4 12.3 . Oct Sept (Prev) Oct03/02 Sales Total 2.0 1.0 0.5 6.6 Durable Goods 1.8 2.3 1.6 6.3 Automotive 0.5 1.2 1.1 4.6 Prof'l equip 1.0 2.6 2.0 1.2 Computer equip. 2.4 5.8 4.8 -2.5 Machinery -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 7.0 Nondurable Goods 2.2 unch -0.5 6.8 Petroleum 1.4 -1.9 -2.6 6.9 (Billions of dlrs) Oct Sept (Prev) Oct'02 Inventories Total 291.20 289.69 289.78 285.89 Durable Goods 173.44 172.81 172.87 172.81 Automotive 25.25 24.60 24.62 24.76 Nondurables 117.77 116.89 116.91 113.08 (Billions of dlrs) Oct Sept (Prev) Oct'02 Sales Total 246.84 242.01 240.74 231.62 Durable Goods 117.70 115.67 114.96 110.71 Automotive 18.25 18.17 18.16 17.45 Nondurables 129.14 126.34 125.78 120.91 Stock-to-sales ratio Oct Sept (Prev) Oct'02 . 1.18 1.20 1.20 1.23 FORECAST: Reuters survey of U.S. economists forecast: U.S. Oct wholesale inventories +0.2 pct HISTORICAL COMPARISONS/NOTES: US OCT WHOLESALE SALES RISE LARGEST SINCE MAY'99 (+2.0 PCT) US OCT STOCK/SALES RATIO LOWEST ON RECORD The stock-to-sales ratio is a measure of how long it would take to deplete inventories at the current sales pace.
This is a demand driven economy. Clearly the supply exceeds the demand, otherwise inventories would not have risen. What that means is demand is not where it should be, and that's not a good thing.
Reuters
October Inventories Up More Than Expected
Tuesday December 9, 10:34 am ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Stocks at U.S. wholesalers rose more than forecast in October and sales surged, a government report showed on Tuesday, in a sign factories may need to boost production to keep up with demand.
Wholesale inventories climbed 0.5 percent in October, the Commerce Department said, boosted by the largest build-up in supplies of farm products on record and by a 2.7 percent increase in auto stocks. The overall increase was larger than the 0.2 percent gain expected by economists.
"I think what they show is that the inventory rebuilding cycle that everyone had been anticipating for the fourth quarter is coming to fruition," said Drew Matus, economist at Lehman Brothers. "That should add to fourth quarter growth."
Sales of wholesale goods soared 2.0 percent, the largest rise since May 1999, helped by a record 14.5 percent increase in demand for farm products.
The stocks-to-sales ratio, which measures the time it would take to deplete inventories at the current sales pace, fell to 1.18 months, the lowest on record.
Mfg is generally "durable goods", for which sales fell off, and inventories increased slightly. Sales growth is positive but slower than Septembers (sales growing slower) and inventory growth is slower still. Inventories in key areas of cars, furniture, construction materials and computers are growing and sales are slowing.
Mfg is not "pumping". They are running very close to sales so as to not build up excess (expensive) inventory.
Non-durables sales are up and inventories as well (slightly), but if you read the full report it is heavily influenced by farm products. The farm-belt is "pumping", so much so that they sold crops in high demand (due to droughts in Europe and Australia and demand from China), but can't get the crops to market because of deterioration in the railroad infrastructure, hence the build up in inventories.
Look at the rest of non-durables and you see inventories generally falling (not being commensurately replenished) and sales of key consumables like clothing & groceries falling.
Morons.
The buildup is because farmers can't get their sold crops to market because of lack of trains and ships. It isn't a build up so much as it's constipation in shipping. Thats why ag inventories have exploded.
Interesting you cite Russia. Reading your comments some might confuse you with a Stalist central planner. If some excess inventory at the WHOLESALE level is good, I bet a LOT would be even better, eh comrade?
Only some alarmist who can't recognize sarcasm.
Yeah, can't help but encounter those types on a thread like this.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.