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There is no verifiable evidence that Bush carried the Mulsim vote by anything like 70% (other than Norquist asserting it (w/o footnotes)in the American Spectator and elsewhere. It turns out, by the way, that the only assertion one can find after exhaustive research for this claim came from a "sample" done by Sami Al Arian's Tampa Bay Islamic Center. What a shocker! What IS verifiable is that Bush and the GOP lost in every major state with substantial Arab and or Muslim population concentration (CA, NY., NJ, MI -- the latter being the then-only Arab American Senator, Spencer Abraham, in the state with the largest Arab and Muslim concentration). Florida.....well, we all know .... Hope this answers your question.

That is some indirect evidence that the Muslim vote did not go as has been presented by Norquist and some others. But there is more evidence, some direct, some indirect.

First are the 2000 exit polls. In the breakdown by religion, 94% of people said they were Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, or "None". That leaves 6% "other" which would be primarily Muslim. The "Other" vote went 62%-28% for Gore. There were some problems with the exit polling in 2000, but not large enough problems to cause a complete reversal within a demographic subgroup.

And the additional indirect evidence comes in the fact that supposedly Bush has alienated the Muslim vote which supposedly supported him so overwhelmingly. Were this really the case, then Bush would be struggling in the polls now in the states where there is a large Muslim population; this isn't the case though. For example, in Florida he leads all Democrats by about 15 points.

I'm not sure what your bottom line is; nor that the "6%" can be stipulated to be Muslim. It is certainly not the case that 6 % of voters were Muslim, nor would the conflated addition of Arabs) overwhelmingly Christian, bring it to this figure). And even if it were, 40 % of Muslims in the US are Black Americans, and I don't think even Grover would suggest they voted for us. Told the "Grover/Sami Florida Muslim vote thesis, one of the top operatives for Jeb Bush and the Bush campaign, now serving in the Administration, laughed aloud and said that Haitian immigrant voters were more important than any Muslim vote!

I have not had time to check your links; there are numerous academic and journal articles about this, incuding by Alex Rose and by STATS (Statistical Assessment Service) which I would commend to your attention an dhave cited previously.

On the issue of Muslim alienation, if/when I have time I will send you statements from leading spokemen for that "community" who have said in recent weeks that "Bush will be lucky if he gets 5% of the Muslim vote." A reason that does not seem to be affecting his lead in Fla, is most probably because it never did.

Finally, again, the states (MI most notably) and the precincts and CDs, (MI again especially) where the "Muslim vote" going for Bush in anything like the cited 70% should have carried for Bush and the GOP -- Gore votes and Dem votes remained solid.