[dangus]

In 1970, the UN thought there would be 30 billion people in the world by 2100. Today, they're guessing 10. Birth rates and Population growth have actually been significantly *below* Un's minimum projections. Three reasons: industrializing nations spontaneously reduce population growth; anti-poverty initiatives which resulted in higher birth rates (i.e., encouraging bottle feeding when breast feeding acts as a modest birth control.); declining birth rates failed to stabilize.

My guess: we peak at 8 billion in 2040. China loses 120 million per decade by 2050. Sounds too low? It sounded much more absurd when I first predicted it in 1988.

[geopyg]

Do these estimates take into account the "unforeseen" event of a killer flu, ebola, etc? The black plague is reported to have killed 30%-40% of Europe's population and up to 2/3rds of China's in the 1300's (based on a couple things I saw on the net). Obviously our medicine is better, but I know they are worried if an entirely new flu shows up some year with no vaccine for it.