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Dean's "Southern Strategy" is primary-only, designed to beat Clark and Edwards and hold down Sharpton's and Braun's share of the black vote.

He has absolutely no strategy, nor any intention to draw up one, for the South in the general election. The Dean strategy is Gore states plus Missouri or Ohio.

There won't be a strong Green candidacy, so he won't have to worry about Wisconsin, New Mexico or Oregon -- he might feel the need to spend a little bit to defend Minnesota, where there's evidence of a Republican trend and the margin of victory in 2000 was small. PA and MI are non-issues -- if Bush's popularity is such that Dean has to fight for those states, Dean has no chance at MO or OH and will probably also lose WI or MN, meaning that he can't win no matter what. Same analysis on pick-ups in WV, LA, AR, and FL -- if, with gay marriage and the war on terror, those states are competitive for Dean, Dean is cruising for a relatively easy victory anyway.

The greatest resource that Dean has is his running-mate pick; when we see him choose Gephardt, Holden, Dayton, or Celeste the hand he's playing will be clear.