"Worst case is that they're getting a lot of new recruits. Best case is that they're getting desperate."
I really don't see lots of new recruits for that outfit. They are all foreigners not Iraqis. Also, as their most experienced fighters get killed, their replacements will be less well trained. The Fadayeen Saddam were trained by the Iraqi state while it was still intact. It's going to be more difficult to train replacements.
OH They are desperate!