Bush in bazaar (David Warren)

David Warren Online / Ottawa Citizen ^ | 29 November 2003 | David Warren

[Lando Lincoln]

President Bush's drop-in to Baghdad for American Thanksgiving has been rightly reported as a propaganda stunt -- a good one, building morale among beleaguered and homesick U.S. forces, and giving America itself a self-confident boost. But his principal accomplishment during the two-and-a-half hours he was on the ground has gone mostly below radar.

In a brief meeting with four senior and representative members of the provisional Iraqi Governing Council, he seems to have broken a logjam. The problem for the U.S. is to be able to hand over full sovereign power to an elected Iraqi government by July 1st of next year, with a "status of forces" agreement guaranteeing the continuing presence of U.S. troops to provide background security.

Now, Grand Ayatollah Ali Husseini al-Sistani, the authoritative spokesman for Iraq's majority Shia population, had already laid down conditions for the vote which the U.S. State Department was too slow to comprehend. They should have been listening, some months ago, because Sistani's prestige gives him a working veto over all plans. In this case, the U.S. had assumed an indirect election would decide the next government, conducted in 18 regional caucuses. But Sistani was insisting on a full, direct, popular ballot. That sounds nice until you realize it is physically impossible.

Iraq's last census was in 1998. It is unreliable. It will take about two years to do a new one; and a census is necessary as the basis of a legitimate voters' roll.

But that's thinking Western-style. As Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who is Sistani's hand within the Governing Council, has since insisted, an emergency list can be created by using the old U.N. ration coupon records as a point of departure, for a knock-down census that gathers only what is needed to assemble those voters' rolls. This, too, will be nearly impossible to complete by June, but hey.

Worse, the Americans feared, the rush could lead to "a mosque election", in which the clerics tell the faithful how to vote. But this is the same as saying that Iraq is not yet ready for democracy -- and of course it's not. No matter how you cut it, "a mosque election" is what you're going to get.

Sistani's other requirements are easier to meet, but again, not as easy as they sound. The draft constitution must acknowledge the Islamic faith, and not be in conflict with it (same story as Afghanistan). And, U.S. troops should be withdrawn from all civil patrols before the government handover. (They would like nothing better.) Since the Americans are training Iraqi police as fast as they can, the question is once again only one of time.

Naturally, the Kurds are suspicious of Shia posturing, and the Sunni representatives are suspicious of everyone. They tend to wait and see what the U.S. will do, before playing their own hands against Sistani's. However, the current rotating President, Jalal Talabani, who leads one of the two large Kurdish factions, travelled to Najaf to confer directly with Sistani, immediately after the "night journey" encounter at Baghdad airport with President Bush. Nothing but good seemed to come of it, and the Governing Council would now seem to be bargaining again, with everything on the table.

So what did Mr. Bush do? It would seem that he personally delivered the rhetorical "Whatever!", to break an impasse. The principals had to hear from him directly that, in effect, Iraq is their problem to solve and not Mr. Bush's; that the latter now accepts the new Iraqi democracy is not going to be very Western-looking, because it can't be. It will instead resemble something hatched in an Iraqi bazaar; and the U.S. will remain to make sure that nothing worse happens.

[Normal4me]

Dems: We have to get out of Iraq NOW!!

Repubs: Okay, we'll be out of there by June 2004.

Dems: NO! They won't be ready for self control by then!!

Repubs: Okay, we'll send more troops to ensure security.

Dems: NO!!! Our guys are getting killed!!

[jolie560]

good article...."It will...resemble something hatched in an Iraqi bazaar; and the U.S. will remain to make sure that nothing worse happens". Sounds like a good game plan to me.

[Nathan Zachary]

David Warren is a good writer. He seems to hit the nail on the head consistently, as he did with the "flypaper" article. not bad for a Canuck. Seems to be more in tune with the USA than Alot of USA journalists

[McGavin999]

So what did Mr. Bush do? It would seem that he personally delivered the rhetorical "Whatever!",

This probably surpised them more then anything. They really don't get it that Iraq is going to be for the Iraqis. It took Bush looking them in the eye and letting them know that he really means it when he said THEY will be responsible for their own futures. We're just there to make sure that Saddam doesn't come back. We want them standing tall on their own two feet and then we can go home.

[Ragtime Cowgirl]

Thanks seamole, Lando Lincoln.

This is news to me. David Warren has a friend on the inside, doesn't he? *g*
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President Bush's drop-in to Baghdad for American Thanksgiving has been rightly reported as a propaganda stunt -- a good one, building morale among beleaguered and homesick U.S. forces, and giving America itself a self-confident boost. But his principal accomplishment during the two-and-a-half hours he was on the ground has gone mostly below radar.

In a brief meeting with four senior and representative members of the provisional Iraqi Governing Council, he seems to have broken a logjam.....

....the current rotating President, Jalal Talabani, who leads one of the two large Kurdish factions, travelled to Najaf to confer directly with Sistani, immediately after the "night journey" encounter at Baghdad airport with President Bush. Nothing but good seemed to come of it, and the Governing Council would now seem to be bargaining again, with everything on the table.

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    Cowboy CinC. 

More from the current Iraqi Governing Council President:

8 The Way Forward ~ We Iraqis must bear the brunt of the fighting. ~ Opinion Journal  | 11/23/03 | JALAL TALABANI

[Abcdefg]

" ... Sistani's prestige gives him a working veto over all plans."

I bet Saddam also thought he had a "working veto" over US plans.

[Dolphy]

Thanks for the ping.

The President said during his address to the soldiers that Iraqis needed to seize the moment...sounds like he may have said the same to the council members. The first MBA president demonstrates what corporate America knows, there are leaders and there are terminal malcontents who wouldn't know what to do if their wishes were delivered. It sounds like the President is about to find out who is who.

[expatpat]

We want them standing tall on their own two feet and then we can go home.

It's not that easy, I fear. It could easily develop into another Iran in the South, and with Sunnis and Shiites fighting it out at the Sunni/Shiite margin. At least the Kurds seem to be acting responsibly.

[Alamo-Girl]

Bump!

[blackie]

he seems to have broken a logjam..... ~ Bump!