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Howard Dean will get the nomination. Perhaps he'll nominate John Edwards as his running mate to win southern states. Or maybe Richard Gehhardt, who's a nice person but old hat. It won't work. And the electoral map is beginning to take shape. Dean will certainly get D.C., Massachusetts, & Rhode Island. Bush will improve his 2000 showings in New York & Connecticut, but that's not saying much (he'll lose them again). Dean is also strongly favored in Hawaii, Maryland, & Vermont. Leaning towards Dean, but not totally out of Bush's reach, are New Jersey, Illinois, & California. Leaning slightly towards Dean are Washington & Oregon (with the nation's highest unemployment), and West Virginia (whose 2000 support for Bush was a fluke). Michigan, Maine, and New Mexico are tossups. States where Dean has the greatest growth potential are Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa, which have a history of suspicion of overseas interventions and skepticism towards business interests. Everywhere else looks like Bush Country.