Posted on 11/20/2003 7:10:34 AM PST by Starwind
Chicago Fed national activity index slips in Oct
Thursday November 20, 10:00 am ET
NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Thursday its National Activity Index for October slipped due mainly to a weak reading of industrial production.
The index came in at 0.01 in October, from a downwardly revised 0.16 in September.
Factory production ran below trend in October, and employment continued to drag on the index, despite recent reports of improvement in the job market.
The personal consumption and housing components provided the bright spot for the month, lifting the overall index 0.10 but not enough to overcome the negative contributions.
The three-month moving average of the index suffered a steeper decline, to -0.07 in October from 0.06 in September.
Interpreting the CFNAI-MA3If you look at the chart in the report of the CFNAI-MA3 (3 month moving average), activity has not yet reached .2 level indicative of the end of a recession.
If CFNAI-MA3 < -0.70 following a period of economic expansion... Increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. If CFNAI-MA3 > +0.20 following a period of economic contraction... Significant likelihood that a recession has ended. If CFNAI-MA3 > +0.70 more than two years into an economic expansion... Increasing likelihood that a period of sustained accelerating inflation has begun. If CFNAI-MA3 > +1.00 more than two years into an economic expansion... Substantial likelihood that a period of sustained accelerating inflation has begun.
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