"Are We Losing 'MILLIONS OF JOBS'"?

John Dessauer's Investor's World ^ | November 5, 2003 | John Dessauer

[goodnesswins]

John Dessauer is an authority on global investing....he had this in his recent newsletter....worth reading. This is an excerpt.....

"Are We Losing Millions of Jobs"?

The popular view is that the U.S. economy is losing jobs at a rapid clip--more than two million fewer jobs since President Bush took office. But Nobel Laureate and Economics Professor Gary S. Becker throws some doubt on these numbers.

Becker says that two leading government job surveys give very different pictures of changes in employment. Data from surveys of company payrolls show large job losses since the start of the last recession. But the Labor Department, when it polls households, shows a rise in jobs. Becker says, "These surveys sometimes give conflicting pictures, partly because household surveys more quickly detect employment at new companies."

To research the conflicting data, I went to the Cleveland Federal Reserve (www.clevelandfed.org) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov). Yes we are losing millions of jobs! In 2002 the U.S. economy lost 32 million jobs. This is not unusual. When the economy was booming in 1999, we lost 33 million jobs. Back in 1993, we lost 27 million jobs!

But we have also been creating over 30 million new jobs each year: +30 million in 1993, +33.7 million in 1997 and +31.7 million in 2002. Since we "lost" 32 million jobs in 2002, according to the BLS, the U.S. only lost a net 356,000 jobs in all of 2002.

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[goodnesswins]

Did you read this??? 31.7 MILLLION jobs CREATED in 2002......spread the word.

[anniegetyourgun]

You'd think people on diets would get the same concept. Gain a pound, lose two. Gain three, lose one. And so on, and so on....

[StatesEnemy]

Wow.... Paper hat sales must be thru the roof.

[lelio]

Exactly. That's why I look at the unemployment numbers with a big ole grain of salt. If you're a former high tech worker earning $100k a year and have to take a $20k barista job you haven't affected the unemployment number at all. In fact if you were on unemployment insurance for a year and then took a job out of disparation, you've decreased the number.

A much better number would be state and federal income tax return statements to show if personal income is up or down.

[aimhigh]

Don't share this with the liberal press, they might squirm and fart in the process.

[goodnesswins]

Personal income stats.....

here: http://www.bea.gov/briefrm/tables/ebr4.htm

[EGPWS]

Take a peek at one's returns on the market. Perhaps this would be a more accurate reference for the doom and gloom people.

Yep, we are ALL doomed to poverty. /sarcasm

[EGPWS]

A much better number would be state and federal income tax return statements to show if personal income is up or down.

I took your advice. Thanks for the post...you just ruined my day. : (

[VOA]

bump

[waterstraat]

If you're a former high tech worker earning $100k a year and have to take a $20k barista job you haven't affected the unemployment number at all. In fact if you were on unemployment insurance for a year and then took a job out of disparation, you've decreased the number.

A much better number would be state and federal income tax return statements to show if personal income is up or down.

Exactly, lets see if the income tax returns of former IT people and factory workers puts our federal budget into a surplus this year, and whether Arnold Swartzenagger will have a cushy job balancing the California budget with all of his high tech people that this nobel person thinks are re-employed.

[netmilsmom]

I must be having a bad day or maybe the Polish is coming out in me.....but could you please tell me if this is good news or bad news?

[goodnesswins]

Depends upon whether you are a conservative or a liberal....the liberal press has been screaming about the millions of jobs lost.....without noting how many MIGHT have been created......and, yes, you can look at personal income and stock market returns, too, to evaluate just how "bad" things are....IMHO

[Luis Gonzalez]

...about that whole "we're losing millions of jobs" debate we were having just a few days ago.

[GatekeeperBookman]

John Dessauer is an authority on global investing....

Wow! I am an expert in...posting. Yea, that's it, now will someone buy my newsletter & then subscribe to my list of forums??

"The War has many facets; http://aztlan.net/ Look at your enemy."

[GingisK]

Depends upon whether you are a conservative or a liberal....

Actually, it depends if you are a software or electrical engineer. After thirty years in the trade last year was the only time in my life I was laid off and did without a job for four months. In Febuary I will be laid off once again. I know several software engineers who have been out of work for nearly a year.

Don't accuse me of not "staying up to date" like that GWB claims. I have four books shelves each seven feet tall laden with software engineering books. These are what kept me current during my career. I'm still on a steady reading diet. These jobs are indeed disappearing, so now we must start at the bottom of the heap in a career path that doesn't seem to exist anywhere.

[dirtydanusa]

All you have to do is read the label on the products. Most are made in China. Levi's, Stanley, Craftsman power tools, Black & Decker and many others are now made in China. Try buying an American made pair of shoes, tools, or clothing . Even just about every Christmas ornament, light and even fake tree are made in China and they aren't allowed to celebrate Christmas.

Someone had to lose a job for all these products to now be made in China. Many are now in service industries because they cannot send the Chinese to cut your lawn or flip your burgers. If there was a way to make this happen, the beancounters would make it so.

[YankeeReb]

You've read my mind my friend, I've been saying the same thing to anyone who'll listen.

[RikaStrom]

Some of what we are seeing in Houston is that the jobs are migrating to smaller companies. The companies that are growing, ie. hiring staff, are not the big conglomerates of yesterday. They are the small to midsize companies. These companies cannot pay the inflated price of salaries that came with the boom several year ago. Of course, this is MHO, and only what I am seeing locally. I'm sure someone else might have a different view and/or experience.

Hi Luis, long time no type. :-)

[FreeReign]

Don't accuse me of not "staying up to date" like that GWB claims. I have four books shelves each seven feet tall laden with software engineering books.

If what you are reading is not electronic, then you're not staying up to date. JMO.

[InterceptPoint]

I just ran into an old friend from Boeing in Anaheim California and ask him how things were going at my old company. The answer - they are going great guns and the only thing holding them back is they can't hire qualified communications system engineers and software engineers fast enough. Methinks things are picking up.