Posted on 11/16/2003 9:46:07 AM PST by GeneralHavoc
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- If he is to defeat four-term U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter in the Republican primary for Senate, U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey must attract the overwhelming number of GOP voters in Pennsylvania's central and rural counties, political analysts say.
Toomey, R-Lehigh Valley, and Specter, R-Pa., are waging an intense primary campaign.
Most political scientists and consultants give the edge to Specter, citing his support from President Bush and U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, his success in raising nearly $10 million for his re-election effort and his work securing money for Pennsylvania communities through his seat on the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Toomey is no political pushover, and Specter says he regards the three-term congressman's campaign as a serious threat. The two candidates say they intend to compete in every region of the state and not just the central or rural counties.
For Toomey to prevail in a statewide contest, he must hugely outperform Specter in central Pennsylvania and in the northern tier counties that make up what is called the rural "T" in Pennsylvania's political geography.
Mike Young, a pollster and former professor of political science at Penn State Harrisburg, says Republicans who live in the central and northern counties -- and outside of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and their suburbs -- are quite different from their Republican cousins in urban and suburban parts of the state.
There are fundamentally two Republican parties in Pennsylvania, Young says. One is conservative, and the other is progressive or moderate. There are two constituencies, and they are regionally based.
"The way I would put it is, (Toomey) can't win without exceptional performance in his base. And his base is in the T -- he's an ideological candidate," he said.
With the exception of Rick Santorum, ideological candidates don't do well in Pennsylvania, Young says. The caveat is, they can win Republican primaries, and that's the big caveat here.
G. Terry Madonna, the Millersville University political scientist and polling expert, says Toomey's campaign has no choice but to focus its energies on generating a huge Republican turnout in central and rural counties.
It's obviously much more important for Toomey than it is for Specter, because without it, (Toomey) cant even think of winning, Madonna said. York and Lancaster and Dauphin (counties) are key areas because of their size. He's got to win them overwhelmingly and the turnout has got to be substantial.
Without President Bush's support, Toomey must succeed in convincing Republican primary voters they should disregard the White House's political wishes and vote their ideological hearts, Madonna said.
Toomey and Specter, interviewed for this story, claimed they intended to compete in all of Pennsylvania's 67 counties, without ceding one battleground to the other GOP hopeful.
"I think I'm doing very well in central Pennsylvania," Toomey said. "At this point, I'm determined to campaign in every part of the state."
Stephen Moore -- president of a group backing Toomey called the Club for Growth -- says he hopes Toomey will bankroll $2.5 million for his primary challenge by Dec. 31.
All of the polling we do indicates that if Toomey can get his message out statewide, which is a big if, because its an expensive state, then Toomey can win, Moore said.
Specter, because of his political pedigree as a former Philadelphia district attorney and his background as an abortion-rights Republican, is favored to win five vote-rich counties in southeastern Pennsylvania: Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery and Philadelphia.
Specter also is favored to prevail in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.
Toomey must excel elsewhere to overcome any advantages Specter scores in the state's most populous regions, political scientists and lawmakers say.
U.S. Rep. Todd Platts, who is backing Specter, expects to see the two Republican Senate candidates competing for the affections of GOP stalwarts in the 19th congressional district.
Central Pennsylvania and the rest of the T will be a real battleground area, said Platts, R-York County. One, its the most Republican part of the state And it is home to more moderate and conservative than (Republicans) in the southeast, where they're more moderate-to-liberal Republicans.
"I think Pat's strategy has to include significant success in central Pennsylvania and I do think this area will play a significant role in the primary," Platts said.
Platts said Toomey's anti-abortion, anti-tax campaign had not caught fire in the 19th district just yet.
Moore, of the Club for Growth, said Specter may have the campaign money to monopolize the Philadelphia television market. Toomey may not be able to run many television spots that Philadelphia and Philadelphia suburban voters see, Moore said.
Toomey may be forced to "concentrate his message," including his broadcast advertising, in central and western Pennsylvania, Moore said.
The congressman is hoping to pick up votes from culturally conservative voters who have lost patience with Specter, an abortion-rights Republican who sometimes votes with Democrats on civil rights issues and tort reform.
"My campaign for re-election is moving along on schedule," Specter said, noting he planned to campaign in Centre, Clinton and Lycoming counties and keep his profile visible inside the T.
"I do not take any campaign lightly," Specter added. "I play squash every day. And I learned from squash that you're never too far ahead to lose; you're never too far behind to win. So I take all opponents very seriously. But I feel good about this election, and I'm not ceding any area or any county to anyone."
Pittsburgh is one of those cities that's more conservative socially than many areas of the country but votes overwhelmingly and reflexively Democrat.
As to the substance of the attacks, they are, of course, only technically true under a very strange interpretation of the votes in question.
BTW, I'm hoping I don't get picked for jury duty. It's in Honesdale, Wayne County, where the trial for the Long Island hazing a**holes will be. I hope that's not the jury they're picking tomorrow. I think it's a little early for that.
The criminality of Street, the wholesale incompetence of Rendell and the weirdo at the top of the ticket is going to make Democrats unelectable statewide for the next few years.
Republicans have worried about a bruising primary in this race, but I don't think it will hurt them at all. The only person who would be strong in the general election for the Dems is the dim-witted Casey, Jr. And then, only because of his name.
You got that right. But it was the republican state senate that bailed on IDs to vote. The house passed it when Ridge was still gov but the senate wouldn't even pass it out of committee.
It would "disenfranchise" (I hate that word!) poor blacks and elderly doncha know.
Thanks. We need all of our third party and independent friends to register as pubbies for the primary next year. WTH. Ask your conservative Democrat friends to register pubbie.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.