Welch pointed to a recent Marist College poll that found that 44 percent of those surveyed said they definitely plan to vote against Bush next year, while 38 percent said they definitely plan to vote for him. Well, yes. But the Marist poll also found Bush beating any Democrat matched against him.
Considering most voters have still not heard of most of the Dem candidates, I don't see any significance to Bush winning head to head matchups. Challengers poll better against the incumbent as they become more known. Bush I was still ahead of Clinton in the spring of 92. That all changed after the Dem convention.
This election will be tough. Lots of overseas money will flow in against Bush-in retribution for having shown up the Europeans and the UN for what they are. The rest of the worlds' elite are threatened by a powerful and independent US-in some respects their own postions are not all that different from the Arabian aristocrats. When all is said and done Bush will need to define this election as us-Americans and our interests and who will support Americans and who will not.