Posted on 11/10/2003 8:50:58 AM PST by Starwind
KC Fed manufacturing index 28 in Oct vs 31 in Sept
Monday November 10, 11:01 am ET
WASHINGTON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Details of the Federal Reserve Bank (News - Websites) of Kansas City's monthly manufacturing index, released on Monday. Following are the survey results: MANUFACTURING SURVEY Oct Sept Oct03/02 Expect 6 mos. Production 28 31 34 55 Shipments 21 30 36 49 New Orders 29 31 40 50 Backlog Orders 5 2 10 26 Number of employees 4 11 -8 15 Average workweek 5 25 17 15 Finished product prices -5 -1 -1 9 Raw product prices 17 16 39 27 Capital expenditures N/A N/A 3 16 Inventory-materials 5 -4 -5 4 Inventory-finished goods 1 -8 -7 6 N/A - not available NOTES/HISTORICAL COMPARISONS The survey included 107 responses from manufacturing plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico and western Missouri. The index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of total respondents reporting decreases from the percentage reporting increases. Index values greater than zero generally suggest expansion, while values less than zero indicate contraction, the Kansas City Fed said. The figures are not seasonally adjusted.
Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District continued to expand strongly in October. The year-over-year production index reached its highest level in over five years, and expectations for future production were at their highest level in the nine-year history of the survey. As in August and September, the month-over-month production index was also very high and, while the year-over-year employment index remained negative, the month-over-month employment index was modestly positive for the fourth month in a row. However, the monthly data are not seasonally adjusted, so caution must be taken in basing analyses on month-to-month comparisons. Until several years of data are available for seasonal adjustment, this report will focus primarily on changes in activity versus a year ago.
The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production rose to 34 in October, up from 17 in September and the highest reading since early 1998 (Tables 1 & 2). The rise in the production index was due largely to strong expansion at durable goods-producing firms, although activity at nondurable goods-producing plants rose somewhat as well. While sample sizes make it more difficult to draw firm conclusions about individual states, the data available suggest that production was well above year-ago levels throughout the district, except in western Missouri, where activity remained similar to a year ago.
Fifth District
Manufacturing Activity
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Manufacturing growth bounced up in October; shipments and new orders increased
After failing to exhibit signs of growth during the last few months, Fifth District manufacturing activity picked up sharply in October, according to results from the Richmond Fed's latest survey. The expansion in manufacturing activity was across the board. Most firms reported stronger demand, including a few that noted an uptick resulting from Hurricane Isabel. Some weak spots remained in manufacturing, however, — notably in the furniture and textile industries.
Link to full report here.
Retail Activity Quickens; Businesses' Outlook Brightens
Revenues at retail and services businesses in the Fifth District rose briskly in October, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. With the exception of big-ticket sales, retailers painted a rosy picture for the month. Services firms also reported renewed strength in revenues. Rounding out the positive report, the service sector saw gains in employment and wages for the month. Adding to the upbeat tone, the overall sentiment for business over the next six months was decidedly brightened. In addition, respondents reported continuing subdued price growth in the sector, and expectations were for only mild price increases in the coming months.
Link is here.
FWIW, Reuters has always lead the headline with the production index number, and usually comparing it to the prior month. As the reports vary month to month, the headlines do as well. Perceptions of any given report consequently clash with someone's agenda, every month, up or down.
Reuters tabular reports do *no* analysis. They merely lift the summary numbers from the full report, format them into tables, add a headline and intro sentance, and close with notes for revisions or historical precedents/records, and occasionally economists' forecasted expectations for the report.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.