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It is a good piece, with one flaw in my eye:

The bottom line is that the Dean strategy is to front-load his spending on his campaigns in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. And in the Democratic primaries in those three states, his strategy will work perfectly, even in South Carolina (but keep in mind that the Democrat voters there are only a third of the electorate, and Dean will only take, say, 60% of those who vote in the primary).

Here is the problem. Dean is already 7 points behind Gephardt in Iowa-- and this is before the impact of his recent asinine comments and then damning pandering apology the next day. He was only up 12 in New Hampshire, again before the comments, and after months and months of huge (free) publicity and fawning press coverage. He should be up 30 with the media fellatio he has gotten. And he's not even in first or second in South Carolina.

You read it here first (and I have been predicting this for months now)- Dean won't be the nominee, and he won't win any of Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina.

I can see these points, but I think what you're missing is the "expectations" factor. Six months ago, no one expected Howard Dean to be anywhere near the position he's in now. In Iowa, Gephardt is ahead, but everyone would expect him to lead there comfortably, thanks to all of his union connections (that's another thing you missed - Dean's pickup of the AFSCME and SEIU endorsements is a huge, probably fatal, blow to Dick Gephardt). In short, Dean doesn't have to "win" Iowa in order to chalk it up as a victory - all he has to do is make a respectable showing.

New Hampshire - this was expected to be Kerry's prize, from which he would pick up the necessary momentum to at least make the "finals" of the nomination. Dean's got a double-digit lead on Kerry, and probably won't lose too much with his "pickup trucks with Confederate flags" comments - Democratic primary voters in NH are going to share the candidates' hatred and disgust for the South. If Kerry gets blown out in NH, his own backyard, what's he going to do anywhere else? He'll be cooked - the action then moves to South Carolina, and Kerry shares Dean's electability problem in the South.

No one in the world expects Dean to do very much in South Carolina, and he actually may have done himself a favor by shooting off at the mouth, in that he lowered the bar for what will constitute a "victory" in SC. Again, all he'll have to do is make a somewhat respectable showing. Eventually the primary action will move to other states where Dean will do much better.

In summary, I think the nomination is Dean's to lose.

John Armor/ Cong billybob: Excellent analysis. IMHO, you do indeed paint the most likely scenario. One pundit explained that the 9 dwarves are running for the nomination, not the general election. And the platform for the Democrats is to take the unpopular parts of the Mondale campaign (raise taxes) and the McGovern campaign (peace at all costs) and put them together. A few things going for them now: first (as always) the media; second, uncertainty - comments on Iraq and economy are credible in a time of uncertainty. Those two 'advantages' IMHO become liabilities with this overly long campaign season. so many debates and all the candidates seem way too stale months before a vote is cast. both economy and Iraq will be measurably better in 9 months. And the media encouraging Democrat extremism just gives more fodder for Bush to use later; these guys are out on some serious limbs.

The funding gap that Dean can open up by forgoing the public financing will be make interesting politics in that it may finally be the end of public financing for serious candidates.

Wolfstar is right to suggest It aint over until its over. An early Dean win is a likely scenario, but a few other scenarios are possible.

Still, I am quite confident about a Bush win now that 3rd Q GDP growth came in so strong. It's clear that the economy is in growth mode, and moreover you can (and Bush will) make a strong case that tax cuts played a positive role in that. Furthermore, Iraq will *not* necessarily be the primary voting issue in nov 2004; by then the pacification will be further along, and it may revert to a more generic question "how to win the war on terror?". I am sure Bush wins hands down on that, and Rove is dusting off both the 1972 and 1984 playbooks on how to beat candidates that want to cave to our enemies *and* raise taxes.

McKinley: Interesting thesis that Dean wont win. I didnt know that "And he's not even in first or second in South Carolina." Maybe that is why he made his dumb comment, eh? IMHO, Gephardt is 2nd most likely candidate. And he could be a harder candidate to beat, mainly because he is not as looney. But we should also understand that the Democrat who can beat all comers in the nomination is by definition the hardest candidate to beat. I dont think there's a 3% candidate out there who could mount a better race against Bush than Dean.

Here's another scenario for you: Dean wins NH, Gephardt wins Iowa, the south gets split. Because so much of the states calendar is 'front-loaded' nobody gets a majority - and the Democratic nomination process drags out to the convention. This is IMHO a possible alternative to an early Dean KO, especially if Dean implodes. Delaying the nomination process would further hurt the Democrats.

I dont think Hillary will be the nominee. It simply wont happen, would prove how dangerously power-hungry that couple is if they tried; and if they actually wrestled the nomination prize from the poor 9 souls trudging through the snows of Iowa and NH for months, it would be a free gift for us in the GOP. She would run a late and likely disorganized campaign, while Bush and Rove and Co. could retool fast to any new opponent ... Bush would beat her and (hopefully) make her less electable in 2006 and 2008.

Lastly, what is also encouraging in 2004 is the favorable alignments on the Senate and House, thanks to TX redistricting.

ALL OF THE ABOVE IS AMPLE REASON TO WORK AND FIGHT HARD FOR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN 2004! WE CAN MAKE THIS A "REALIGNMENT" ELECTION THAT DEFINES THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AS THE MAJORITY PARTY AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL - NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1920s!

By way of that, let's support John Armor aka Congressman Billybob for Congress! John, let me know if and when you announce for Congress. I was considering running for the 10th CD in Texas, but discretion is the better part of valor when the price tag is half a million, and 6 or more other GOP candidates jump into the open primary (safe GOP seat, but the primary is a tough race). The money I saved thereby can help a few others that need help to win. I'll support you with a few $$$ and ask others to do the same.