The expectations have now changed. The six months ago things are history. Expectations for Dean are now sky high. A win for Gephardt or Kerry would be big now.
In Iowa, Gephardt is ahead, but everyone would expect him to lead there comfortably, thanks to all of his union connections (that's another thing you missed - Dean's pickup of the AFSCME and SEIU endorsements is a huge, probably fatal, blow to Dick Gephardt).
Those are service unions, very different from Gephardt's manufacturing etc. supporters. He didn't get 'em in '88 either. He's never been the leader for their endorsements. Big win for Dean, but not at Dick's expense.
In short, Dean doesn't have to "win" Iowa in order to chalk it up as a victory - all he has to do is make a respectable showing.
He needs top two in each to avoid a collapse. He can lose to Gephardt in Iowa, no big deal, but two second place finishes would be far from a victory.
I just can't see Dean not winning NH at this point. He has 40 percent of the NH primary vote locked up right now - in a field of nine, that is a staggering majority. Obviously anything can happen between now and primary day, but it would take a stupendous, almost unprecedented crash-and-burn on Dean's part to lose NH now. Kerry's is Dean's closest NH competitor, and he's had weeks to try and close the gap. Instead, he's steadily being left further and further behind.
I'm still putting my money on Howard Dean winning the nomination, because right now he's far and away the best Captain Ahab. All the other dwarves are cheap posers in comparison. And that's what the Democratic Party wants now, a Captain Ahab who will take all of their bile and irrational hatred for George W. Bush and "shoot his heart upon it."